{ "schema": 1, "lang": "en", "tag": "en", "name": "Escape Velocity", "description": "An open atlas of what each technology still needs to reach maturity.", "version": "65775c8", "version_date": "2026-10-05", "license": { "data": "CC0-1.0", "text": "CC-BY-4.0", "code": "Apache-2.0", "note": "Data CC0-1.0; text CC-BY-4.0. Cite the atlas version." }, "repository": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity", "site": "https://scape-velocity.github.io/escape-velocity/", "alan_machine": "https://the-alan-machine.github.io/the-alan-machine/", "governance": { "maintainers": [ "JoaoAlisson" ], "url": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/GOVERNANCE.md" }, "languages": [ { "id": "en", "tag": "en", "name": "English", "english_name": "English", "maintainers": [], "file": "atlas.json" }, { "id": "pt", "tag": "pt-BR", "name": "Português (Brasil)", "english_name": "Portuguese (Brazil)", "maintainers": [ "JoaoAlisson" ], "file": "atlas.pt.json", "translation": { "translated": 616, "total": 616, "machine": 616, "stale": 0, "reviewed_by": [] } } ], "taxonomy": { "domains": [ { "id": "computing", "name": "Computing", "summary": "Classical information processing: logic, memory and data movement after the end of transistor scaling.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 17, 22 ], "arxiv": [ "cs.AR", "cs.ET", "physics.app-ph" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 9 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "quantum", "name": "Quantum technologies", "summary": "Machines that use superposition and entanglement: quantum computers, sensors and networks.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 31, 17 ], "arxiv": [ "quant-ph" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 9 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "ai", "name": "Artificial intelligence", "summary": "Learning systems: their capability, reliability and the energy and data they consume.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 17 ], "arxiv": [ "cs.LG", "cs.CL", "cs.AI" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 9 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "health", "name": "Health and medicine", "summary": "Diagnosis, prevention and treatment of disease, measured in patients.", "readiness_scale": "clinical-drug", "openalex_fields": [ 27, 30, 24 ], "arxiv": [], "pubmed": true, "sdgs": [ 3 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "biotech", "name": "Biotechnology", "summary": "Engineering biology: designing molecules, cells and organisms, and manufacturing with them.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 13, 15 ], "arxiv": [ "q-bio.BM", "q-bio.QM" ], "pubmed": true, "sdgs": [ 3, 9, 12 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "neurotech", "name": "Neurotechnology", "summary": "Reading from and writing to the nervous system: brain-computer interfaces and neural therapies.", "readiness_scale": "clinical-device", "openalex_fields": [ 28, 22, 27 ], "arxiv": [ "q-bio.NC", "eess.SP" ], "pubmed": true, "sdgs": [ 3 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "energy", "name": "Energy", "summary": "Generating, storing and delivering energy: fusion, fission, solar, batteries and the grid.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 21, 22 ], "arxiv": [ "physics.plasm-ph", "physics.app-ph", "cond-mat.mtrl-sci" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 7, 13 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "climate", "name": "Climate and environment", "summary": "Removing greenhouse gases, adapting to a warmer climate and measuring the planet.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 23, 19, 15 ], "arxiv": [ "physics.ao-ph" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 13, 15 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "materials", "name": "Materials and manufacturing", "summary": "New materials and the ability to make them at scale.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 25, 16 ], "arxiv": [ "cond-mat.mtrl-sci", "cond-mat.supr-con" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 9, 12 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "water", "name": "Water", "summary": "Clean water for people, farms and industry: desalination, purification and reuse.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 23, 15 ], "arxiv": [], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 6 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "food", "name": "Food and agriculture", "summary": "Growing more food with less land, water, fertilizer and emissions.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 11, 13 ], "arxiv": [], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 2, 15 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "space", "name": "Space", "summary": "Reaching, working in and living in space.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 22, 19, 31 ], "arxiv": [ "astro-ph.IM", "physics.space-ph" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 9 ], "moderators": [] }, { "id": "enablers", "name": "Enabling technologies", "summary": "Cross-cutting technologies many others depend on: cryogenics, power electronics, photonics, sensors and precision manufacturing.", "readiness_scale": "trl", "openalex_fields": [ 22, 31 ], "arxiv": [ "physics.app-ph", "physics.ins-det" ], "pubmed": false, "sdgs": [ 9 ], "moderators": [] } ], "metrics": [ { "id": "energy-per-operation", "name": "Energy per operation", "meaning": "Energy dissipated per logic operation, measured at the device", "unit": "J", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log", "alan_machine": "energy_per_operation" }, { "id": "wall-plug-energy-per-operation", "name": "Wall-plug energy per operation", "meaning": "Energy per logic operation drawn from the grid, including cooling and power delivery", "unit": "J", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log", "alan_machine": "wall_plug_energy_per_operation" }, { "id": "energy-efficiency", "name": "Computing energy efficiency", "meaning": "Floating-point operations per joule for a whole system, the same as FLOP/s per watt, at the arithmetic precision stated in the conditions (FP64 for the Green500; FP16, FP8 or FP4 for AI accelerators)", "unit": "FLOP J^-1", "direction": "higher", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "energy-per-token", "name": "Energy per token", "meaning": "Energy drawn per generated token in language model inference, as defined by the source. The number belongs to one of three measurement boundaries, and the conditions of the value say which: the chip or accelerator alone; the system, as power at the plug (MLPerf Power measures full system power with a SPEC-approved power analyzer read through the Power-Thermal Daemon, PTD, arXiv:2410.12032); or the facility, the system times the power usage effectiveness of the data center (PUE, ISO/IEC 30134-2:2026). Numbers from different boundaries are not comparable", "unit": "J", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log", "alan_machine": "energy_per_token" }, { "id": "error-rate", "name": "Error rate", "meaning": "Errors per operation, for a component with no more specific metric", "unit": "1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log", "alan_machine": "error_rate" }, { "id": "two-qubit-gate-infidelity", "name": "Two-qubit gate infidelity", "meaning": "Average gate infidelity of a two-qubit gate, 1 - F_avg, as measured by randomized or interleaved randomized benchmarking. A process (Pauli) infidelity, as cycle or cross-entropy benchmarking report, is converted with r_avg = d r_process / (d + 1) = 0.8 r_process for d = 4, and the card says so", "unit": "1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log", "alan_machine": "error_rate" }, { "id": "logical-error-per-cycle", "name": "Logical error per cycle", "meaning": "Probability that an error-corrected logical qubit fails in one round of error correction", "unit": "1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "physical-qubits", "name": "Physical qubits", "meaning": "Number of physical qubits operated together in one device", "unit": "qubit", "direction": "higher", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "decoder-latency", "name": "Decoder latency", "meaning": "Time from the end of a syndrome measurement to the decoder's correction, in real-time decoding", "unit": "s", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "cooling-power", "name": "Cooling power", "meaning": "Heat a refrigerator can remove at the stated temperature", "unit": "W", "direction": "higher", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "net-removal-cost", "name": "Levelized cost of net CO2 removal", "meaning": "Levelized cost per tonne of CO2 removed from the atmosphere and durably stored, net of the life-cycle emissions of capture, energy, transport and storage", "unit": "USD t^-1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "capture-cost", "name": "Levelized cost of CO2 capture", "meaning": "Levelized cost per tonne of CO2 captured, before transport and storage and without netting out the emissions of the process. Lower than the net removal cost of the same plant", "unit": "USD t^-1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "specific-energy-consumption", "name": "Specific energy consumption", "meaning": "Energy used to produce one cubic metre of fresh water", "unit": "kWh m^-3", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "launch-cost", "name": "Launch cost", "meaning": "Price or cost to place one kilogram of payload in low Earth orbit", "unit": "USD kg^-1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "scientific-gain", "name": "Scientific gain (Q_sci)", "meaning": "Fusion energy released divided by the heating energy absorbed by the plasma or, in inertial confinement, by the driver energy delivered to the target (the target gain). Scientific breakeven is Q_sci = 1; it leaves out the energy drawn from the grid to run the drivers, heating and magnets", "unit": "1", "direction": "higher", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "sensitivity", "name": "Sensitivity", "meaning": "Share of people with the condition whom the test detects", "unit": "%", "direction": "higher", "scale": "linear" }, { "id": "specificity", "name": "Specificity", "meaning": "Share of people without the condition whom the test correctly clears", "unit": "%", "direction": "higher", "scale": "linear" }, { "id": "communication-rate", "name": "Communication rate", "meaning": "Words per minute a person communicates through an interface, with the vocabulary size and the word error rate stated in the conditions; across modalities the field also reports the information transfer rate in bits per minute", "unit": "words min^-1", "direction": "higher", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "experimental-hit-rate", "name": "Experimental hit rate", "meaning": "Share of designed molecules that meet the stated success criterion, such as binding the target below a stated affinity, when tested experimentally", "unit": "%", "direction": "higher", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "conductor-cost", "name": "Conductor cost", "meaning": "Price of a conductor per kiloampere of current carried over one metre, at the stated temperature and field", "unit": "USD kA^-1 m^-1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "nitrogen-derived-from-atmosphere", "name": "Nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa)", "meaning": "Share of a plant's nitrogen that comes from biological fixation of atmospheric N2, with the measurement method (15N isotope dilution, 15N natural abundance, ureide or N difference) stated in the conditions", "unit": "%", "direction": "higher", "scale": "linear" }, { "id": "energy-per-bit", "name": "Energy per bit moved", "meaning": "Energy to move one bit between memory and processor, or between chips, including the interface on both ends", "unit": "J", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "heat-flux", "name": "Heat flux removed", "meaning": "Heat a cooling solution removes per unit area of the device surface, at the stated temperature rise", "unit": "W m^-2", "direction": "higher", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "sequencing-cost", "name": "Cost per human genome", "meaning": "Cost to sequence one human genome at about 30-fold coverage, as defined by the source", "unit": "USD", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" }, { "id": "waveguide-loss", "name": "Waveguide propagation loss", "meaning": "Optical power lost per unit length in an integrated waveguide, at the stated wavelength and geometry", "unit": "dB m^-1", "direction": "lower", "scale": "log" } ], "readiness_scales": [ { "id": "trl", "name": "Technology readiness level", "summary": "From a principle observed in the laboratory to a system proven in operation. For energy, the IEA extends the scale to 11 levels, up to mature technologies with widespread adoption; the atlas keeps levels 1 to 9.", "source": "NASA, Technology Readiness Levels; also ISO 16290:2013, Space systems, Definition of the Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and their criteria of assessment (confirmed in 2024), https://www.iso.org/standard/56064.html; the IEA 1 to 11 scale as described by the Canada Energy Regulator, https://www.rec-cer.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2025/market-snapshot-how-ready-are-energy-technologies.html", "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/somd/spacetech/technology-readiness-level", "level": [ { "level": 1, "name": "TRL 1", "meaning": "Basic principles observed and reported" }, { "level": 2, "name": "TRL 2", "meaning": "Technology concept or application formulated" }, { "level": 3, "name": "TRL 3", "meaning": "Analytical and experimental proof of concept of the critical function" }, { "level": 4, "name": "TRL 4", "meaning": "Component or breadboard validated in the laboratory" }, { "level": 5, "name": "TRL 5", "meaning": "Component or breadboard validated in a relevant environment" }, { "level": 6, "name": "TRL 6", "meaning": "System or subsystem prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment" }, { "level": 7, "name": "TRL 7", "meaning": "System prototype demonstrated in an operational environment" }, { "level": 8, "name": "TRL 8", "meaning": "Actual system completed and qualified through test and demonstration" }, { "level": 9, "name": "TRL 9", "meaning": "Actual system proven in operation" } ] }, { "id": "mrl", "name": "Manufacturing readiness level", "summary": "From manufacturing implications identified to full-rate production.", "source": "US Department of Defense, Manufacturing Readiness Level Deskbook", "url": "https://www.dodmrl.org", "level": [ { "level": 1, "name": "MRL 1", "meaning": "Basic manufacturing implications identified" }, { "level": 2, "name": "MRL 2", "meaning": "Manufacturing concepts identified" }, { "level": 3, "name": "MRL 3", "meaning": "Manufacturing proof of concept developed" }, { "level": 4, "name": "MRL 4", "meaning": "Capability to produce the technology in a laboratory environment" }, { "level": 5, "name": "MRL 5", "meaning": "Capability to produce prototype components in a production-relevant environment" }, { "level": 6, "name": "MRL 6", "meaning": "Capability to produce a prototype system or subsystem in a production-relevant environment" }, { "level": 7, "name": "MRL 7", "meaning": "Capability to produce systems or components in a production-representative environment" }, { "level": 8, "name": "MRL 8", "meaning": "Pilot line demonstrated; ready for low-rate production" }, { "level": 9, "name": "MRL 9", "meaning": "Low-rate production demonstrated; ready for full-rate production" }, { "level": 10, "name": "MRL 10", "meaning": "Full-rate production demonstrated" } ] }, { "id": "clinical-drug", "name": "Clinical development of a drug or biologic", "summary": "From a target to a standard treatment. Approval by one major regulator counts as approved.", "source": "Escape Velocity, after the phases of clinical development used by the FDA and the EMA", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research", "level": [ { "level": 1, "name": "Discovery", "meaning": "Target or candidate identified" }, { "level": 2, "name": "Preclinical", "meaning": "Tested in cells and animals" }, { "level": 3, "name": "Phase 1", "meaning": "First in humans: safety and dose" }, { "level": 4, "name": "Phase 2", "meaning": "Efficacy and side effects in patients" }, { "level": 5, "name": "Phase 3", "meaning": "Confirmatory trials in large patient groups" }, { "level": 6, "name": "Approved", "meaning": "Approved by at least one major regulator" }, { "level": 7, "name": "Standard of care", "meaning": "Recommended in clinical guidelines and in routine use" } ] }, { "id": "clinical-device", "name": "Clinical development of a medical device or diagnostic", "summary": "From a concept to a device in routine use. Clearance by one major regulator counts as cleared.", "source": "Escape Velocity, after the medical device pathway of the FDA", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/patients/device-development-process/step-3-pathway-approval", "level": [ { "level": 1, "name": "Concept", "meaning": "Device concept and first bench work" }, { "level": 2, "name": "Bench and animal", "meaning": "Bench, analytical and animal testing" }, { "level": 3, "name": "Early feasibility", "meaning": "First studies in humans, a few participants" }, { "level": 4, "name": "Pivotal", "meaning": "Pivotal clinical study that supports a regulatory decision" }, { "level": 5, "name": "Cleared or approved", "meaning": "Cleared or approved by at least one major regulator" }, { "level": 6, "name": "Standard of care", "meaning": "Recommended in clinical guidelines and in routine use" } ] } ], "sdgs": [ { "id": 1, "name": "No poverty" }, { "id": 2, "name": "Zero hunger" }, { "id": 3, "name": "Good health and well-being" }, { "id": 4, "name": "Quality education" }, { "id": 5, "name": "Gender equality" }, { "id": 6, "name": "Clean water and sanitation" }, { "id": 7, "name": "Affordable and clean energy" }, { "id": 8, "name": "Decent work and economic growth" }, { "id": 9, "name": "Industry, innovation and infrastructure" }, { "id": 10, "name": "Reduced inequalities" }, { "id": 11, "name": "Sustainable cities and communities" }, { "id": 12, "name": "Responsible consumption and production" }, { "id": 13, "name": "Climate action" }, { "id": 14, "name": "Life below water" }, { "id": 15, "name": "Life on land" }, { "id": 16, "name": "Peace, justice and strong institutions" }, { "id": 17, "name": "Partnerships for the goals" } ], "vocabulary": { "technology_status": [ { "id": "proposed", "label": "proposed", "meaning": "Named, with a statement and a scope; nothing mapped yet" }, { "id": "scoping", "label": "scoping", "meaning": "Dependencies and the headline metric are mapped; the current value has a source" }, { "id": "mapped", "label": "mapped", "meaning": "Every metric has a current value with a source and a target; the main gaps are written" }, { "id": "tracked", "label": "tracked", "meaning": "Mapped, and a curator reviews new evidence at least every six months" }, { "id": "achieved", "label": "achieved", "meaning": "Every target is met; kept for the record" }, { "id": "retired", "label": "retired", "meaning": "No longer pursued, or merged into another technology; the reason is in the file" } ], "gap_status": [ { "id": "open", "label": "open", "meaning": "No approach has shown evidence of closing it" }, { "id": "active", "label": "active", "meaning": "Research aimed at the gap is under way, without decisive results yet" }, { "id": "promising", "label": "promising", "meaning": "At least one approach has evidence that it can close the gap" }, { "id": "closed", "label": "closed", "meaning": "The metric reached the target in a demonstration backed by an established evidence card; a single reported result leaves the gap promising" }, { "id": "beyond-limit", "label": "beyond limit", "meaning": "The target lies beyond a physical limit; it must change, not the technology" } ], "gap_type": [ { "id": "scientific-unknown", "label": "scientific unknown", "meaning": "The underlying science is not understood well enough" }, { "id": "engineering", "label": "engineering", "meaning": "The science is known; a working device or system is not" }, { "id": "fundamental-limit", "label": "fundamental limit", "meaning": "A physical law bounds the metric; progress means a different approach" }, { "id": "data", "label": "data", "meaning": "The data, benchmarks or measurements needed do not exist" }, { "id": "manufacturing", "label": "manufacturing", "meaning": "It works in the laboratory but cannot be made at scale or with the needed yield" }, { "id": "cost", "label": "cost", "meaning": "It works and can be made, but costs too much to be used" }, { "id": "regulation", "label": "regulation", "meaning": "Approval, standards, safety or ethics block use" }, { "id": "supply-chain", "label": "supply chain", "meaning": "Scarce materials, single suppliers or export controls block scale" } ], "layer": [ { "id": "principle", "label": "principle", "meaning": "Physical, chemical or biological principle; materials" }, { "id": "device", "label": "device", "meaning": "A single component: a qubit, a cell, a molecule, an electrode" }, { "id": "system", "label": "system", "meaning": "Components working together: architecture, control, integration" }, { "id": "manufacturing", "label": "manufacturing", "meaning": "Making it at scale: process, yield, supply" }, { "id": "deployment", "label": "deployment", "meaning": "Using it: cost, regulation, adoption, infrastructure" } ], "severity": [ { "id": "critical", "label": "critical", "meaning": "The target cannot be reached until this gap closes" }, { "id": "high", "label": "high", "meaning": "Reaching the target without closing it is possible but much harder" }, { "id": "medium", "label": "medium", "meaning": "Closing it would bring the target noticeably closer" }, { "id": "low", "label": "low", "meaning": "Worth recording; not on the critical path" } ], "evidence_class": [ { "id": "established", "label": "established", "meaning": "Measured and published after peer review, or in a standard reference" }, { "id": "reported", "label": "reported", "meaning": "A preprint, a company or press report, or a single unreplicated result" }, { "id": "extrapolation", "label": "extrapolation", "meaning": "A projection from established results under stated assumptions" }, { "id": "speculation", "label": "speculation", "meaning": "A hypothesis with no evidence yet, such as a cross-domain idea from an agent" } ], "evidence_status": [ { "id": "unverified", "label": "unverified", "meaning": "Added, by a person or an agent, and not checked yet" }, { "id": "machine-checked", "label": "machine checked", "meaning": "The identifier resolves, the metadata matches and the quote appears in the abstract" }, { "id": "verified", "label": "verified", "meaning": "A curator read the source and confirmed every finding" }, { "id": "rejected", "label": "rejected", "meaning": "The source does not support the card; kept so it is not added again" } ], "evidence_type": [ { "id": "article", "label": "article", "meaning": "Peer-reviewed research article" }, { "id": "review", "label": "review", "meaning": "Peer-reviewed review article" }, { "id": "preprint", "label": "preprint", "meaning": "Preprint (arXiv, bioRxiv, medRxiv, ChemRxiv): in the terms of NISO RP-8-2008, Journal Article Versions, the Author's Original, the Submitted Manuscript Under Review or the Accepted Manuscript, any version before the Version of Record that the publisher declares published. When a preprint is published, the card cites the Version of Record" }, { "id": "dataset", "label": "dataset", "meaning": "Dataset or benchmark leaderboard, with an access date" }, { "id": "report", "label": "report", "meaning": "Report from a government, standards body, laboratory or company" }, { "id": "trial", "label": "trial", "meaning": "Clinical trial registration (ClinicalTrials.gov, EU CTR, WHO ICTRP)" }, { "id": "patent", "label": "patent", "meaning": "Patent or patent application" }, { "id": "standard", "label": "standard", "meaning": "Standard or reference data (CODATA, ISO, NIST)" } ] } }, "technologies": [ { "id": "ai/ai-for-science", "domain": "ai", "name": "AI for science", "statement": "AI systems that propose, test and refine scientific hypotheses, designs and experiments well enough\nthat their results are confirmed in the laboratory at a rate that speeds up discovery.\n", "scope": "In scope: models and agents used to generate and rank candidates (molecules, proteins, materials,\nexperiments) and to close the loop with laboratory or simulation feedback. Out of scope: the energy\ncost of running them, covered by ai/energy-efficient-inference; the specific discoveries they enable,\ncovered by technologies such as biotech/de-novo-protein-design and\nhealth/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 3, 9 ], "search_terms": [ "AI for scientific discovery", "autonomous laboratory self-driving lab", "AI scientist hypothesis generation validated experiment" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [ { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "why": "Screening and agentic loops run many model calls per experiment, so the energy and cost per token set how far discovery loops can scale." } ], "required_by": [ { "technology": "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "why": "Design methods are deep-learning models trained on protein structures." }, { "technology": "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria", "why": "Machine-learning models screen and generate candidate molecules far faster than screening libraries by hand." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "gap": "success-rate-variability", "title": "Success rate varies widely between targets and between groups" } ], "dependents": [ "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria" ], "dependent_domains": [ "biotech", "health" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/ai/ai-for-science.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/ai/ai-for-science.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "domain": "ai", "name": "Energy-efficient AI inference", "statement": "Running trained AI models to answer queries at a small fraction of today's energy per generated\ntoken, across the whole stack from the chip to the cooling plant, so that wider use of AI does not\nneed proportionally more electricity.\n", "scope": "In scope: the energy drawn to serve a trained language model, measured per token or per query,\nincluding accelerator, memory, interconnect, host and cooling overhead. Out of scope: the energy of\ntraining (not mapped yet); the logic devices, data movement and cooling that inference depends on,\ncovered by computing/beyond-cmos-logic, computing/low-energy-data-movement and enablers/heat-removal;\nand what AI is used for, covered by ai/ai-for-science.\n", "status": "mapped", "readiness": 6, "readiness_evidence": [ "elsworth2025measuring", "oviedo2026energy" ], "readiness_note": "Efficiency gains are demonstrated in production serving (a 33x reduction in energy per median Gemini Apps prompt over one year, company-reported), but the order-of-magnitude hardware gaps below are at laboratory or prototype level.", "horizon": "2030s", "sdgs": [ 7, 9, 13 ], "search_terms": [ "LLM inference energy per token", "energy consumption of large language model serving", "inference energy efficiency GPU" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "alan_machine": [ { "page": "building-alan/energy-per-token", "title": "Building Alan: energy per token", "url": "https://the-alan-machine.github.io/the-alan-machine/building-alan/energy-per-token/index.html" } ], "impact": [ { "kind": "benefit", "who": "Data centers that serve AI models, and the electricity grids that supply them", "claim": "Across models, serving systems and hardware, efficiency gains in sight could cut the energy of AI inference 8 to 20 times. At 1 billion queries a day with 10% long queries, demand would fall from 1.7 GWh a day to 0.8 GWh a day with efficiency interventions.", "class": "extrapolation", "assumptions": "A bottom-up model of production serving from token throughput, node power and overhead, for frontier-scale models (more than 200B parameters) on H100 nodes; not a measurement.", "evidence": [ "oviedo2026energy" ], "metric": "energy-per-token", "sdgs": [ 7, 13 ] } ], "readiness_name": "TRL 6 (6 of 9)", "metrics": [ { "id": "token-energy", "metric": "energy-per-token", "headline": true, "conditions": "GPU energy over the inference window divided by output tokens, as the source defines it; strongly dependent on model size, batch size, context and output length. The current value is for a 1B-parameter dense model, the favorable end of the range.", "current": { "value": 0.72, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "evidence": "vellaisamy2026characterization", "note": "At 10 output tokens the same setup measures 7.46 J/token, so the number is only comparable under stated conditions. as_of is the approximate preprint month; the abstract gives no date." }, "target": { "value": 0.07, "rationale": "One order of magnitude below the current value under the same conditions. Oviedo et al. (Joule 2026) estimate 8 to 20 times line-of-sight energy reductions across models, serving systems and hardware; 10 times sits inside that range and needs no new device physics.", "evidence": "oviedo2026energy" }, "gap_to_target": 1.012, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "0.72 J", "target": "0.07 J", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "1.0 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "data-movement", "title": "Moving weights and cache costs more than the arithmetic", "description": "Each generated token streams the model weights and the key-value cache through memory, so memory\ntraffic, not arithmetic, tends to bind the energy per token. The best published electrical\ndie-to-die link measures 0.65 pJ/bit in a prototype, an interface-only figure. Closing the gap\nmeans fewer bytes moved (quantization, cache compression, sparse attention) and cheaper bytes.\n", "metric": "token-energy", "type": "engineering", "layer": "system", "severity": "critical", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "computing/low-energy-data-movement" ], "evidence": [ "park2024pjbit" ], "search_terms": [ "KV cache compression energy", "memory-bound LLM decoding energy" ] }, { "id": "memory-bandwidth", "title": "Decoding is bound by memory bandwidth, not compute", "description": "Small batches leave the arithmetic units idle while the memory system is saturated. The measured\ntoken energy falls from 7.46 to 0.72 J/token as output length grows from 10 to 512 tokens at batch 16,\nbecause fixed costs are amortized; batching gains shrink as context grows (6.31x at 512 tokens of\ncontext against 1.17x at 4K for 10 output tokens).\n", "metric": "token-energy", "type": "engineering", "layer": "device", "severity": "high", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "computing/low-energy-data-movement" ], "evidence": [ "vellaisamy2026characterization" ], "search_terms": [ "high bandwidth memory energy LLM decoding", "batching energy per token context length" ] }, { "id": "logic-energy", "title": "CMOS logic has a ceiling of about two hundred times today's efficiency", "description": "Ho, Erdil and Besiroglu estimate a ceiling of 4.7e15 FP4 operations per joule for CMOS\nmicroprocessors, roughly two hundred times current microprocessors, from switching, interconnect\ncapacitance and leakage. The atlas has no sourced current FLOP-per-joule value for deployed\naccelerators yet, so this gap has no metric of its own.\n", "type": "fundamental-limit", "layer": "principle", "severity": "medium", "status": "open", "blocked_by": [ "computing/beyond-cmos-logic" ], "evidence": [ "ho2023limits" ], "search_terms": [ "limits energy efficiency CMOS", "FLOP per joule trend accelerators" ] }, { "id": "cooling", "title": "Delivered power and cooling bound token output", "description": "At deployment scale the binding constraint can move from peak compute to delivered data-center\npower, cooling capacity and PUE. Embedded microfluidic cooling supports about 1e3 W/cm2; accelerator\npower density keeps rising.\n", "metric": "token-energy", "type": "engineering", "layer": "deployment", "severity": "medium", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "enablers/heat-removal" ], "evidence": [ "wei2026microfluidic" ], "search_terms": [ "data center cooling AI accelerators PUE", "liquid cooling GPU racks" ] }, { "id": "utilization", "title": "Idle capacity and small batches waste energy", "description": "Production energy per prompt includes idle machine capacity and data-center overhead, not only active\naccelerator power. Google reports a 33x reduction in energy per median Gemini Apps text prompt over one\nyear from software efficiency and clean-energy procurement (the abstract states the combined effect\non energy and does not separate the two). Further gains depend on batching, routing and model choice.\n", "metric": "token-energy", "type": "engineering", "layer": "deployment", "severity": "high", "status": "promising", "evidence": [ "elsworth2025measuring", "oviedo2026energy" ], "search_terms": [ "LLM serving utilization energy", "energy-aware request routing small language models" ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "computing/beyond-cmos-logic", "why": "Arithmetic in the accelerator is bounded by the switching energy of CMOS logic, which is estimated to allow only about two hundred times more efficiency than current microprocessors." }, { "technology": "computing/low-energy-data-movement", "why": "Token generation reads the model weights and the key-value cache from memory for every token, so memory and chip-to-chip traffic carries a large share of the energy.", "metric": "energy-per-bit", "value": 1e-13, "need": "Energy per bit moved between memory and processor at or below 0.1 pJ, so that streaming weights costs a few watts per terabyte per second." }, { "technology": "enablers/heat-removal", "why": "Delivered power and cooling capacity bound how many accelerators fit in a rack and therefore the tokens produced per site." } ], "required_by": [ { "technology": "ai/ai-for-science", "why": "Screening and agentic loops run many model calls per experiment, so the energy and cost per token set how far discovery loops can scale." }, { "technology": "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci", "why": "Decoding runs a neural network on the neural signal; running it in a wearable or implanted device needs low energy per inference." } ], "blocks": [], "dependents": [ "ai/ai-for-science", "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria", "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci" ], "dependent_domains": [ "biotech", "health", "neurotech" ], "worst_open_severity": "critical", "evidence": [ "elsworth2025measuring", "oviedo2026energy", "vellaisamy2026characterization", "park2024pjbit", "ho2023limits", "wei2026microfluidic" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/ai/energy-efficient-inference.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/ai/energy-efficient-inference.md" }, { "id": "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "domain": "biotech", "name": "De novo protein design", "statement": "Designing a protein with a chosen structure or function from scratch, by computer, so that the\nfirst designs tested in the laboratory work as intended.\n", "scope": "In: computational design of new protein binders, enzymes and assemblies that do not exist in\nnature, and the experimental success rate of the designs. Out: directed evolution of natural\nproteins, and delivery of the proteins into the body (biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery).\n", "status": "scoping", "sdgs": [ 3, 9 ], "search_terms": [ "de novo protein binder design", "RFdiffusion", "experimental success rate designed proteins" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "success-rate", "metric": "experimental-hit-rate", "headline": true, "conditions": "De novo protein binders, experimental success rate across the targets tested by the method's developers.", "current": { "value": 10, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "evidence": "pacesa2025one", "note": "Lower end of a reported range of 10 to 100% across targets. as_of is the publication year. Independent groups report lower rates for other methods (see the gap)." }, "target": { "value": 90, "rationale": "The goal of the one-design-one-binder approach named in the BindCraft paper: with a success rate of 90%, testing three designs gives more than a 99.9% chance of at least one working binder (1 minus 0.1 cubed), so no high-throughput screening is needed. Atlas reasoning, not an agency target.", "evidence": "pacesa2025one" }, "gap_to_target": 0.954, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "10%", "target": "90%", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "1.0 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "success-rate-variability", "title": "Success rate varies widely between targets and between groups", "description": "The developers of one pipeline report experimental success rates of 10 to 100% depending on the\ntarget. An earlier study found the overall design success rate low and raised it nearly 10-fold\nwith deep-learning filtering. An independent group testing another method on six targets, five\ndesigns each, reported that most targets gave no working binder.\n", "metric": "success-rate", "type": "scientific-unknown", "layer": "device", "severity": "high", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "ai/ai-for-science" ], "evidence": [ "pacesa2025one", "bennett2023improving", "jiang2025rfdiffusion" ], "search_terms": [ "protein binder design failure modes", "benchmark designed binders independent validation" ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "ai/ai-for-science", "why": "Design methods are deep-learning models trained on protein structures." }, { "technology": "biotech/low-cost-dna-synthesis", "why": "Every designed protein must be encoded as synthetic DNA before it can be expressed and tested." } ], "required_by": [ { "technology": "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "why": "Designed binders and capsid proteins can redirect vectors to specific cell types." } ], "blocks": [], "dependents": [ "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery" ], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "high", "evidence": [ "pacesa2025one", "bennett2023improving", "jiang2025rfdiffusion" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/de-novo-protein-design.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/de-novo-protein-design.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "domain": "biotech", "name": "In vivo gene delivery", "statement": "Getting a gene, an editor or an RNA into the cells of a living body that need it, and only those\ncells, safely and at a dose that works.\n", "scope": "In: viral vectors, lipid nanoparticles and engineered capsids that carry genetic cargo to target\ncells in a living body. Out: the choice of the cargo and the design of new proteins\n(biotech/de-novo-protein-design is an input, not part of this entry).\n", "status": "proposed", "readiness_scale": "clinical-drug", "sdgs": [ 3 ], "search_terms": [ "in vivo gene delivery targeted capsid", "AAV capsid engineering", "lipid nanoparticle extrahepatic delivery" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [ { "technology": "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "why": "Designed binders and capsid proteins can redirect vectors to specific cell types." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing", "domain": "biotech", "name": "Low-cost DNA sequencing", "statement": "Reading the sequence of a human genome, at about 30-fold coverage, for a cost low enough that\nsequencing is a routine step in research, screening and diagnosis.\n", "scope": "In: instruments, chemistry and workflows that read DNA, and the cost per human genome. Out: the\ninterpretation of the sequence, and DNA writing (biotech/low-cost-dna-synthesis).\n", "status": "scoping", "sdgs": [ 3, 9 ], "search_terms": [ "low-cost whole genome sequencing", "cost per genome sequencing", "sequencing-by-synthesis cost per gigabase" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "genome-cost", "metric": "sequencing-cost", "headline": true, "conditions": "One human genome at about 30-fold coverage; platform developer's figure per gigabase scaled to a genome.", "current": { "value": 90, "as_of": "2022-01-01", "evidence": "almogy2022cost", "note": "Derived: 1 USD per Gb times 30 times 3 Gb. Preprint by the platform developer; the cost basis of the per-gigabase figure is not defined in the abstract. as_of is the preprint year." }, "target": { "value": 10, "rationale": "Atlas working target, not set by an agency: one order of magnitude below the current value, where the sequencing cost of a genome would be comparable to a routine laboratory assay. NHGRI publishes the cost history but sets no target.", "evidence": "wetterstrand2023dna" }, "gap_to_target": 0.954, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "90 USD", "target": "10 USD", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "1.0 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "cost-basis", "title": "Reagent price is not the cost of a genome", "description": "The per-gigabase price quoted by a platform developer leaves out what NHGRI counts as production\ncost: labor, instruments amortized over three years, informatics and data submission. The atlas has\nno independent figure for the full cost of a 30-fold human genome today, so the current value\nis a derived, developer-reported number.\n", "metric": "genome-cost", "type": "cost", "layer": "deployment", "severity": "medium", "status": "open", "evidence": [ "wetterstrand2023dna", "almogy2022cost" ], "search_terms": [ "full cost of whole genome sequencing including labor and informatics" ] } ], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "health/multi-cancer-early-detection", "why": "Methylation and fragment-based tests read cell-free DNA by sequencing, so test price follows sequencing price." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "health/multi-cancer-early-detection", "gap": "stage-one-sensitivity", "title": "Low sensitivity for stage I cancers" } ], "dependents": [ "health/multi-cancer-early-detection" ], "dependent_domains": [ "health" ], "worst_open_severity": "medium", "evidence": [ "almogy2022cost", "wetterstrand2023dna" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "biotech/low-cost-dna-synthesis", "domain": "biotech", "name": "Low-cost DNA synthesis", "statement": "Writing long, accurate DNA of a chosen sequence at a cost and speed that let designs be built\nand tested without waiting or rationing.\n", "scope": "In: chemical and enzymatic synthesis of oligonucleotides, genes and assembled constructs. Out:\nreading DNA (biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing) and delivering DNA into cells\n(biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "enzymatic DNA synthesis", "gene synthesis cost per base", "long DNA synthesis error rate" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "why": "Every designed protein must be encoded as synthetic DNA before it can be expressed and tested." } ], "blocks": [], "dependents": [ "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery" ], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/low-cost-dna-synthesis.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/low-cost-dna-synthesis.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "biotech/plant-genome-engineering", "domain": "biotech", "name": "Plant genome engineering", "statement": "Making precise, heritable changes to the genomes of crop plants quickly and across species,\nwithout the long tissue-culture steps that limit many crops today.\n", "scope": "In: editing and transformation methods for crop plants and the regeneration of whole plants from\nedited cells. Out: the choice of trait (for example food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals) and field\nregulation of the resulting crops.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 2 ], "search_terms": [ "plant genome editing CRISPR crops", "plant transformation regeneration bottleneck", "gene editing cereals" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals", "why": "Every route to a self-fertilizing cereal needs many coordinated edits to the plant genome." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals", "gap": "nitrogenase-in-plant-cells", "title": "A working nitrogenase inside plant cells" }, { "technology": "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals", "gap": "nodulation-in-cereals", "title": "Root-nodule symbiosis not yet engineered into non-legumes" } ], "dependents": [ "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals" ], "dependent_domains": [ "food" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/plant-genome-engineering.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/biotech/plant-genome-engineering.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "climate/direct-air-capture", "domain": "climate", "name": "Direct air capture", "statement": "Plants that remove CO2 from ambient air and store it durably, at a cost low enough to remove\ngigatonnes per year.\n", "scope": "In: capture of CO2 from air by sorbents or solvents, with transport and geological storage.\nOut: capture at point sources, biological and mineral removal, and the storage site itself\n(climate/geologic-co2-storage).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 13 ], "search_terms": [ "direct air capture cost", "direct air capture energy requirement", "DACCS deployment" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [ { "id": "cost", "title": "Projected cost stays in the hundreds of USD per tonne", "description": "Design and learning-curve estimates put the levelized cost of capture in the hundreds of USD per\ntonne: 94 to 232 USD/t for a designed aqueous-KOH plant (capture only, a design not an operating\nplant), and 341 to 374 USD/t of CO2 net removed with transport and storage at 1 Gt-CO2 per year of\ncumulative capacity. No source found for the cost of a plant operating today. Closing the gap needs\ncheaper sorbents, lower regeneration energy and cheaper storage.\n", "type": "cost", "layer": "deployment", "severity": "critical", "status": "open", "blocked_by": [ "materials/low-cost-co2-sorbents", "climate/geologic-co2-storage" ], "evidence": [ "keith2018process", "sievert2024considering" ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "materials/low-cost-co2-sorbents", "why": "The sorbent sets the capture capacity, the regeneration energy and a large part of the plant's cost." }, { "technology": "climate/geologic-co2-storage", "why": "Removal counts only if the CO2 stays out of the air for centuries; the storage is also part of the cost per tonne." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "critical", "evidence": [ "keith2018process", "sievert2024considering" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/climate/direct-air-capture.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/climate/direct-air-capture.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "climate/geologic-co2-storage", "domain": "climate", "name": "Geologic CO2 storage", "statement": "Injection of CO2 into deep rock formations at gigatonne-per-year scale, with monitoring that shows\nit stays there.\n", "scope": "In: saline aquifers and depleted fields, including injectivity, capacity, monitoring and leakage\nrisk. Out: mineralization in basalt as a capture route, and capture itself (climate/direct-air-capture).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 13 ], "search_terms": [ "geologic CO2 storage capacity", "CO2 injection saline aquifer monitoring", "CO2 leakage risk storage" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "climate/direct-air-capture", "why": "Removal counts only if the CO2 stays out of the air for centuries; the storage is also part of the cost per tonne." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "climate/direct-air-capture", "gap": "cost", "title": "Projected cost stays in the hundreds of USD per tonne" } ], "dependents": [ "climate/direct-air-capture" ], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/climate/geologic-co2-storage.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/climate/geologic-co2-storage.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "computing/beyond-cmos-logic", "domain": "computing", "name": "Beyond-CMOS logic", "statement": "Logic that performs a computation at far less energy per operation than silicon CMOS can, by\nsteeper switches, reversible or adiabatic operation, or superconducting and other devices, down\ntoward the thermodynamic limit.\n", "scope": "In scope: devices and circuits for logic operations, measured by energy per operation at the device\nand with cooling and power delivery included. Out of scope: moving data between memory and\nprocessor, covered by computing/low-energy-data-movement; removing the heat, covered by\nenablers/heat-removal; quantum logic, covered by the quantum domain.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "energy per operation logic device femtojoule", "reversible computing adiabatic logic", "superconducting logic energy", "steep-slope transistor tunnel FET negative capacitance" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "op-energy", "metric": "energy-per-operation", "headline": true, "conditions": "Energy dissipated per logic operation at the device. No sourced current value yet; see the report.", "limit": { "value": 2.87e-21, "basis": "Landauer bound for erasing one bit at 300 K, kT ln 2 with k = 1.380649e-23 J/K, about 2.87e-21 J. It bounds logically irreversible operations; reversible logic can in principle go lower per operation, at the price of speed." }, "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": null, "target": null, "limit": "2.87 × 10⁻²¹ J", "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "why": "Arithmetic in the accelerator is bounded by the switching energy of CMOS logic, which is estimated to allow only about two hundred times more efficiency than current microprocessors." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "gap": "logic-energy", "title": "CMOS logic has a ceiling of about two hundred times today's efficiency" } ], "dependents": [ "ai/ai-for-science", "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria", "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci" ], "dependent_domains": [ "ai", "biotech", "health", "neurotech" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/computing/beyond-cmos-logic.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/computing/beyond-cmos-logic.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "computing/low-energy-data-movement", "domain": "computing", "name": "Low-energy data movement", "statement": "Moving bits between memory and processor and between chips at a small fraction of today's energy\nper bit, by shorter and denser electrical links, in-package memory and optical interconnects.\n", "scope": "In scope: energy per bit of memory interfaces and chip-to-chip links, including the transceiver on\nboth ends. Out of scope: the logic that computes on the data, covered by computing/beyond-cmos-logic;\nthe photonic chips themselves, covered by enablers/photonic-integration.\n", "status": "scoping", "readiness": 4, "readiness_evidence": [ "park2024pjbit" ], "readiness_note": "The best figure found is a 28 nm prototype die-to-die interface; no deployed system figure is sourced yet.", "horizon": "2030s", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "energy per bit die-to-die interface", "HBM interface energy pJ/bit", "co-packaged optics energy per bit", "processing in memory data movement energy" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "alan_machine": [ { "page": "building-alan/data-movement", "title": "Building Alan: data movement", "url": "https://the-alan-machine.github.io/the-alan-machine/building-alan/data-movement/index.html" } ], "readiness_name": "TRL 4 (4 of 9)", "metrics": [ { "id": "bit-energy", "metric": "energy-per-bit", "headline": true, "conditions": "Interface energy of an electrical die-to-die link over a silicon interposer, transceiver only; a prototype, not a deployed memory system.", "current": { "value": 6.5e-13, "as_of": "2024-04-01", "evidence": "park2024pjbit", "note": "0.65 pJ/bit. as_of is the approximate preprint month; the abstract gives no date." }, "target": { "value": 1e-13, "rationale": "Atlas-set reasoning, not an agency target: at 0.1 pJ/bit, an accelerator streaming 10 TB/s (8e13 bit/s, an assumed HBM-class rate) spends 8 W on the link, against 52 W at the current 0.65 pJ/bit; this brings interconnect energy below a few percent of a kilowatt-class accelerator." }, "gap_to_target": 0.813, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "6.5 × 10⁻¹³ J", "target": "10⁻¹³ J", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "0.8 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [], "requires": [ { "technology": "enablers/photonic-integration", "why": "Optical links promise low energy per bit over longer distances than electrical links, and need integrated photonic chips to be made in volume." } ], "required_by": [ { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "why": "Token generation reads the model weights and the key-value cache from memory for every token, so memory and chip-to-chip traffic carries a large share of the energy.", "metric": "energy-per-bit", "value": 1e-13, "need": "Energy per bit moved between memory and processor at or below 0.1 pJ, so that streaming weights costs a few watts per terabyte per second." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "gap": "data-movement", "title": "Moving weights and cache costs more than the arithmetic" }, { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "gap": "memory-bandwidth", "title": "Decoding is bound by memory bandwidth, not compute" } ], "dependents": [ "ai/ai-for-science", "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria", "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci" ], "dependent_domains": [ "ai", "biotech", "health", "neurotech" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [ "park2024pjbit" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/computing/low-energy-data-movement.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/computing/low-energy-data-movement.md" }, { "id": "enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics", "domain": "enablers", "name": "Cryogenic control electronics", "statement": "Electronics that operate at cryogenic temperatures next to the qubits and generate control signals\nand read out results, replacing one line from room temperature per qubit.\n", "scope": "In scope: cryo-CMOS, superconducting digital logic and photonic links used to control and read out\nqubits in the cryostat. Out of scope: the qubits (quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer) and the\ndecoder algorithm (quantum/real-time-qec-decoder).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "cryo-CMOS qubit control", "superconducting digital control electronics", "cryogenic multiplexer qubits" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "why": "One coaxial line per qubit does not scale to a million qubits; control and readout electronics must sit in the cold." }, { "technology": "quantum/real-time-qec-decoder", "why": "The decoder reads syndromes from the control system, and placing it near the qubits shortens the path and the latency." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "gap": "qubit-count-and-wiring", "title": "Qubit count and control wiring" } ], "dependents": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "quantum/real-time-qec-decoder" ], "dependent_domains": [ "quantum" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "enablers/dilution-refrigeration", "domain": "enablers", "name": "Dilution refrigeration", "statement": "Cryostats that cool devices to a few millikelvin and remove the heat that wiring, amplifiers and\ncontrol electronics add at that temperature.\n", "scope": "In scope: dilution refrigerators and their cooling power at the stages where qubits and cold\nelectronics sit. Out of scope: the control electronics themselves (enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics)\nand cooling at room temperature (enablers/heat-removal).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "dilution refrigerator cooling power", "cryogen-free dilution refrigerator", "millikelvin platform large-scale quantum computing" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "power", "metric": "cooling-power", "headline": true, "conditions": "Cryogen-free dilution refrigerator with four parallel dilution units, at 102.48 mK; the power at the 10-20 mK qubit stage is far lower.", "current": { "value": 0.002, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "evidence": "guan2025development", "note": "as_of is the start of the publication year; the abstract gives no date." }, "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "0.002 W", "target": null, "limit": null, "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "why": "Superconducting qubits operate at about 10 mK, and every control line and amplifier adds heat to that stage.", "metric": "cooling-power", "need": "Enough cooling power, in one cryostat or several linked, for the heat load of up to a million physical qubits and their wiring." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "gap": "qubit-count-and-wiring", "title": "Qubit count and control wiring" }, { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "gap": "refrigeration", "title": "Refrigeration for the heat load" } ], "dependents": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "dependent_domains": [ "quantum" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [ "guan2025development" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/dilution-refrigeration.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/dilution-refrigeration.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "enablers/heat-removal", "domain": "enablers", "name": "High-flux heat removal", "statement": "Cooling that removes the heat of dense chips and stacked dies at the device, at heat fluxes well\nabove those of air and cold-plate cooling, in a form that fits in a package and can be made in volume.\n", "scope": "In scope: embedded and near-junction cooling (microfluidic channels, manifolds, jets, two-phase\nflow, diamond spreaders), measured by heat flux removed at a stated temperature rise. Out of scope:\nthe data-center plant and heat rejection; low-temperature refrigeration, covered by\nenablers/dilution-refrigeration.\n", "status": "scoping", "readiness": 4, "readiness_evidence": [ "wei2026microfluidic", "barcohen2019embedded" ], "readiness_note": "Embedded cooling is shown on thermal test vehicles and small GaN-on-diamond devices; a review warns that records are not transferable to package-compatible, large-area, deployed platforms.", "horizon": "2030s", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "embedded microfluidic cooling heat flux", "two-phase manifold microchannel cooling", "near-junction thermal management diamond" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "alan_machine": [ { "page": "building-alan/heat-removal", "title": "Building Alan: heat removal", "url": "https://the-alan-machine.github.io/the-alan-machine/building-alan/heat-removal/index.html" } ], "readiness_name": "TRL 4 (4 of 9)", "metrics": [ { "id": "flux", "metric": "heat-flux", "headline": true, "conditions": "Heat flux a cooler removes per unit area of the device surface. Heated area, coolant, temperature rise and pumping cost differ across sources and must be stated.", "current": { "value": 10000000.0, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "evidence": "wei2026microfluidic", "note": "The upper end of the 10^2 to 10^3 W/cm2 range stated by the review, taken as 1e3 W/cm2. as_of is the year of the review; the abstract gives no date." }, "target": { "value": 100000000.0, "rationale": "Atlas-set reasoning: 10 kW/cm2 over large package-compatible areas. DARPA's near-junction program reached above 40 kW/cm2 (4e8 W/m2) on small GaN-on-diamond devices, so a quarter of that record on deployable, area-scaled hardware would give stacked logic a tenfold margin over today's microfluidic range.", "evidence": "barcohen2019embedded" }, "gap_to_target": 1.0, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "10⁷ W m⁻²", "target": "10⁸ W m⁻²", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "1.0 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "why": "Delivered power and cooling capacity bound how many accelerators fit in a rack and therefore the tokens produced per site." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "gap": "cooling", "title": "Delivered power and cooling bound token output" } ], "dependents": [ "ai/ai-for-science", "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria", "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci" ], "dependent_domains": [ "ai", "biotech", "health", "neurotech" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [ "wei2026microfluidic", "barcohen2019embedded" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/heat-removal.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/heat-removal.md" }, { "id": "enablers/high-repetition-rate-lasers", "domain": "enablers", "name": "High-repetition-rate high-energy lasers", "statement": "Lasers of megajoule class that fire several times per second at high wall-plug efficiency and\nfor billions of shots.\n", "scope": "In: laser drivers for inertial fusion and the diode-pumped solid-state, gas and fibre approaches\nto them. Out: continuous-wave industrial lasers and ultrashort-pulse lasers of low energy.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 7, 9 ], "search_terms": [ "high repetition rate laser inertial fusion energy driver", "diode-pumped solid-state laser wall-plug efficiency", "kilojoule laser Hz" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "energy/fusion-power", "why": "A laser-driven inertial plant needs a driver that fires several times per second, not a few shots per day." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "energy/fusion-power", "gap": "high-gain-implosions", "title": "Gain of about 100 at power-plant repetition rates" } ], "dependents": [ "energy/fusion-power" ], "dependent_domains": [ "energy" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/high-repetition-rate-lasers.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/high-repetition-rate-lasers.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "enablers/photonic-integration", "domain": "enablers", "name": "Photonic integration", "statement": "Many optical components, such as waveguides, modulators, lasers and detectors, made together on one\nchip with low loss at a cost that allows volume.\n", "scope": "In scope: integrated photonic circuits, such as silicon nitride, silicon and III-V platforms, and\ntheir loss, integration of sources and detectors, and fabrication. Out of scope: the systems that use\nthem, covered by quantum/quantum-interconnect and computing/low-energy-data-movement.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "silicon nitride low-loss waveguide", "heterogeneous integration III-V silicon photonics", "photonic integrated circuit" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "loss", "metric": "waveguide-loss", "headline": true, "conditions": "Silicon nitride waveguides with an 80 nm core, made in an anneal-free process at no more than 250 C.", "current": { "value": 1.77, "as_of": "2024-01-01", "evidence": "bose2024anneal", "note": "as_of is the publication year; the abstract gives no date. No target yet: the loss a quantum interconnect or an optical memory link needs has not been sourced." }, "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "1.77 dB m⁻¹", "target": null, "limit": null, "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "low-loss-with-active-devices", "title": "Low loss and active devices in one process", "description": "Silicon nitride gives the lowest waveguide loss, and integrating III-V and silicon materials has made\nlarge-scale nitride circuits with lasers and detectors possible. Ultra-low loss has been reached in\nan anneal-free process at no more than 250 C, which is compatible with CMOS back-end steps; keeping\nthat loss while lasers, modulators and detectors share the chip, at volume, is the open problem.\n", "metric": "loss", "type": "manufacturing", "layer": "manufacturing", "severity": "medium", "status": "active", "evidence": [ "bose2024anneal", "xiang2022silicon" ], "search_terms": [ "heterogeneous integration III-V silicon nitride laser", "low-temperature silicon nitride waveguide loss" ] } ], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "computing/low-energy-data-movement", "why": "Optical links promise low energy per bit over longer distances than electrical links, and need integrated photonic chips to be made in volume." }, { "technology": "quantum/quantum-interconnect", "why": "Optical links between modules need low-loss waveguides, modulators and detectors integrated on chip." } ], "blocks": [], "dependents": [ "ai/ai-for-science", "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "biotech/de-novo-protein-design", "biotech/in-vivo-gene-delivery", "computing/low-energy-data-movement", "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria", "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci", "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "quantum/quantum-interconnect" ], "dependent_domains": [ "ai", "biotech", "computing", "health", "neurotech", "quantum" ], "worst_open_severity": "medium", "evidence": [ "bose2024anneal", "xiang2022silicon" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/photonic-integration.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/photonic-integration.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "enablers/power-electronics", "domain": "enablers", "name": "High-power electronics", "statement": "Converters and switches that move megawatts to gigawatts at high efficiency and power density,\nfrom the grid to magnets, lasers and data centres.\n", "scope": "In: wide-bandgap (silicon carbide, gallium nitride) devices, converters and their cooling.\nOut: signal-level electronics and the logic of computing (computing/beyond-cmos-logic).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 7, 9 ], "search_terms": [ "wide bandgap power semiconductor", "silicon carbide converter efficiency", "pulsed power converter" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "energy/fusion-power", "why": "Magnet power supplies, pulsed power and the grid connection of a plant rely on high-power converters." } ], "blocks": [], "dependents": [ "energy/fusion-power" ], "dependent_domains": [ "energy" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/power-electronics.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/enablers/power-electronics.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "energy/fusion-power", "domain": "energy", "name": "Fusion power", "statement": "A power plant that produces net electricity from nuclear fusion, which first needs a fusion fuel\ntarget or plasma that releases several times more energy than is delivered to it.\n", "scope": "In: deuterium-tritium fusion plants, whether by inertial confinement (laser-driven targets) or by\nmagnetic confinement (tokamaks and stellarators). Out: fission and fission-fusion hybrids. The\nfuel supply is energy/tritium-breeding; the magnets are materials/low-cost-hts-conductor.\n", "status": "scoping", "horizon": "2040s", "sdgs": [ 7, 13 ], "search_terms": [ "target gain inertial fusion", "net electricity fusion pilot plant", "burning plasma fusion energy gain" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "target-gain", "metric": "scientific-gain", "headline": true, "conditions": "Indirect-drive inertial confinement, laser energy delivered to the target, scientific breakeven.", "current": { "value": 1.5, "as_of": "2022-12-05", "evidence": "abushawareb2024achievement" }, "target": { "value": 100, "rationale": "The high-gain requirement for an inertial fusion energy plant: a ratio of neutron yield to incident laser energy of about 100 (goncharov2025laser), stated independently as gains above 100 needed for a laser-fusion power plant (mcgeoch2025development). Gain must cover the driver's wall-plug efficiency, the thermal-to-electric conversion and the power recirculated to the driver, and still leave most of the output for the grid.", "evidence": "goncharov2025laser" }, "gap_to_target": 1.824, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "1.5", "target": "100", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "1.8 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "high-gain-implosions", "title": "Gain of about 100 at power-plant repetition rates", "description": "The record target gain is 1.5, from a single shot at the National Ignition Facility. A plant needs a\ngain of about 100, which in turn needs a high fraction of the laser energy coupled to the target and\nthe loss mechanisms from laser-plasma instabilities held down. Broadband lasers show promise against\nthose instabilities, and simulations predict gains above 100 with less than 1 MJ of argon fluoride\nlaser energy in direct drive, with no experiment yet at that gain.\n", "metric": "target-gain", "type": "scientific-unknown", "layer": "principle", "severity": "critical", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "enablers/high-repetition-rate-lasers" ], "evidence": [ "abushawareb2024achievement", "goncharov2025laser", "mcgeoch2025development" ], "search_terms": [ "high gain inertial fusion target design", "laser-plasma instability mitigation broadband laser", "argon fluoride laser direct drive" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Direct drive with broadband argon fluoride lasers", "readiness": 2, "evidence": [ "mcgeoch2025development" ] } ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "materials/low-cost-hts-conductor", "why": "Compact magnetic-confinement designs need fields above 18-20 T, for which high-temperature superconductors are the enabling technology, and their cost and complexity are a large part of the reactor core." }, { "technology": "energy/tritium-breeding", "why": "Deuterium-tritium plants must breed their own tritium; natural supply is negligible." }, { "technology": "enablers/high-repetition-rate-lasers", "why": "A laser-driven inertial plant needs a driver that fires several times per second, not a few shots per day." }, { "technology": "enablers/power-electronics", "why": "Magnet power supplies, pulsed power and the grid connection of a plant rely on high-power converters." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "critical", "evidence": [ "abushawareb2024achievement", "goncharov2025laser", "mcgeoch2025development" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/fusion-power.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/fusion-power.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "energy/long-duration-storage", "domain": "energy", "name": "Long-duration energy storage", "statement": "Storage that holds grid energy for many hours to days or longer at a cost per kWh low enough\nto firm a grid supplied mostly by wind and solar.\n", "scope": "In: electrochemical (flow, metal-air), thermal, mechanical and chemical (hydrogen) storage with a\nduration beyond about 10 hours. Out: short-duration lithium-ion batteries for hours-scale shifting.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 7, 13 ], "search_terms": [ "long-duration energy storage cost", "flow battery", "levelized cost of storage" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/long-duration-storage.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/long-duration-storage.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "energy/perovskite-silicon-tandem-pv", "domain": "energy", "name": "Perovskite-silicon tandem photovoltaics", "statement": "Solar modules that stack a perovskite cell on a silicon cell to exceed the efficiency limit of\nsilicon alone, and keep that efficiency for the 25 to 30 year life of a solar module.\n", "scope": "In: monolithic and mechanically stacked perovskite-on-silicon cells and modules, and their\ndurability. Out: single-junction silicon and all-perovskite tandems.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 7, 13 ], "search_terms": [ "perovskite silicon tandem solar cell efficiency", "perovskite stability damp heat", "tandem module" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/perovskite-silicon-tandem-pv.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/perovskite-silicon-tandem-pv.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "energy/tritium-breeding", "domain": "energy", "name": "Tritium breeding", "statement": "A fusion plant that makes at least as much tritium in its own blanket as it burns, and recovers\nand recycles the fuel fast enough to keep its startup inventory small.\n", "scope": "In: breeding blankets, tritium extraction and the plant's fuel cycle. Out: the plasma or target\nphysics itself (energy/fusion-power) and lithium-isotope enrichment supply, which is not yet in\nthe atlas.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 7 ], "search_terms": [ "tritium breeding ratio", "tritium fuel cycle self-sufficiency", "breeding blanket lithium" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "energy/fusion-power", "why": "Deuterium-tritium plants must breed their own tritium; natural supply is negligible." } ], "blocks": [], "dependents": [ "energy/fusion-power" ], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/tritium-breeding.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/energy/tritium-breeding.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals", "domain": "food", "name": "Nitrogen-fixing cereals", "statement": "Cereal crops that obtain most of their nitrogen from the air, through their own nitrogenase, an\nengineered symbiosis or a partnered microbiome, so that high yields do not depend on synthetic\nnitrogen fertilizer.\n", "scope": "In: maize, wheat, rice and other cereals that fix nitrogen in the plant or in a stable association\nwith it. Out: fertilizer-applied microbial inoculants that supplement but do not replace fertilizer\n(they appear here only as an approach), and plant gene-editing tools, which are\nbiotech/plant-genome-engineering.\n", "status": "scoping", "sdgs": [ 2, 15 ], "search_terms": [ "nitrogen fixation in cereals", "engineering nitrogenase in plants", "engineered nitrogen-fixing symbiosis non-legumes" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "n-fixation", "metric": "nitrogen-derived-from-atmosphere", "headline": true, "conditions": "Share of the crop's nitrogen from biological fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, measured with 15N methods.", "current": { "value": 82, "as_of": "2018-01-01", "evidence": "vandeynze2018nitrogen", "note": "Upper end of a 29-82% range, in an indigenous landrace grown in nitrogen-depleted soil. Not a modern high-yield cultivar: no elite cereal has shown this." }, "target": { "value": 100, "rationale": "A crop that fully meets its nitrogen from the air is the 'N-self-fertilizing' crop described in the literature as capable of autonomous fixation, avoiding the need for chemical fertilizers. The target applies to elite cultivars at full yield, which is what the current value does not show.", "evidence": "guo2022biological" }, "gap_to_target": 18, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "82%", "target": "100%", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "18 points", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "landrace-to-elite", "title": "Fixation shown in a landrace, not in high-yield cultivars", "description": "The high fixation share was measured in a landrace with aerial roots that secrete mucilage, grown in\nnitrogen-depleted soil. Moving the trait into elite cultivars at full yield, and under fertilization,\nhas not been shown. Engineered root-associated bacteria that keep fixing in fertilized fields have\nbeen commercialized, but their abstract reports a yield gain over fertilizer alone, not a share of\nnitrogen from fixation.\n", "metric": "n-fixation", "type": "scientific-unknown", "layer": "system", "severity": "critical", "status": "active", "evidence": [ "vandeynze2018nitrogen", "wen2021enabling" ], "search_terms": [ "Sierra Mixe maize aerial roots mucilage breeding", "nitrogen fixation corn fertilized field 15N" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Engineered root-associated diazotroph that fixes nitrogen despite fertilizer", "evidence": [ "wen2021enabling" ] } ] }, { "id": "nitrogenase-in-plant-cells", "title": "A working nitrogenase inside plant cells", "description": "Expressing the nitrogenase components in plant mitochondria is the route to a crop that fixes its\nown nitrogen. Sixteen nitrogenase proteins have each been expressed and targeted to the\nmitochondrial matrix of a model plant, but the NifD component is the least abundant and a full\nworking complex in a plant has not been shown.\n", "metric": "n-fixation", "type": "engineering", "layer": "device", "severity": "critical", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "biotech/plant-genome-engineering" ], "evidence": [ "allen2017expression", "guo2022biological" ], "search_terms": [ "nitrogenase mitochondria plant NifD expression", "nif genes plant organelle" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Fusion of NifD and NifK to equalize their abundance in plant mitochondria", "evidence": [ "allen2017expression" ] } ] }, { "id": "nodulation-in-cereals", "title": "Root-nodule symbiosis not yet engineered into non-legumes", "description": "Legumes host nitrogen-fixing rhizobia in root nodules. The objective of engineering nodulation in\nnon-leguminous crops has not been achieved; the open questions are the signalling, infection and\nnodule-organogenesis programs.\n", "metric": "n-fixation", "type": "scientific-unknown", "layer": "principle", "severity": "high", "status": "open", "blocked_by": [ "biotech/plant-genome-engineering" ], "evidence": [ "huisman2019roadmap", "guo2022biological" ], "search_terms": [ "engineering root nodule symbiosis non-legume", "nodulation cereals synthetic biology" ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "biotech/plant-genome-engineering", "why": "Every route to a self-fertilizing cereal needs many coordinated edits to the plant genome." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "critical", "evidence": [ "vandeynze2018nitrogen", "guo2022biological", "wen2021enabling", "allen2017expression", "huisman2019roadmap" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria", "domain": "health", "name": "Antibiotics for resistant bacteria", "statement": "New antibiotics, or other agents, that kill bacteria resistant to the drugs now in use, discovered\nand developed fast enough to keep pace with the spread of resistance. This entry maps research;\nit is not medical advice.\n", "scope": "In: small-molecule and peptide antibacterial discovery, including computational discovery, and\nagents against drug-resistant bacterial infections. Out: vaccines, bacteriophage therapy, and\ndiagnostics. Computational discovery tools belong to ai/ai-for-science.\n", "status": "proposed", "readiness_scale": "clinical-drug", "sdgs": [ 3 ], "search_terms": [ "antibiotic discovery machine learning", "multidrug-resistant bacteria new antibiotic class", "antimicrobial resistance pipeline" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [ { "technology": "ai/ai-for-science", "why": "Machine-learning models screen and generate candidate molecules far faster than screening libraries by hand." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/health/antibiotics-for-resistant-bacteria.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "health/multi-cancer-early-detection", "domain": "health", "name": "Multi-cancer early detection", "statement": "A blood test that screens people without symptoms for many cancer types at once, finds cancers\nearly enough to change outcomes, and rarely raises a false alarm. This entry maps the research\nstate of the technology; it is not medical advice.\n", "scope": "In: blood-based tests for signals of several cancers at once (cell-free DNA methylation,\nfragmentomics, protein markers) used to screen people without symptoms. Out: tests for one cancer\ntype, tests for people with symptoms or a known cancer, and treatment. Sequencing at scale is\ncovered by biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing.\n", "status": "scoping", "readiness_scale": "clinical-device", "horizon": "Not stated by any source read for this entry", "sdgs": [ 3 ], "search_terms": [ "multi-cancer early detection", "cell-free DNA methylation cancer screening", "stage I sensitivity blood test cancer" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "stage-one-sensitivity", "metric": "sensitivity", "headline": true, "conditions": "Stage I cancers of all types detected, blood-based methylation test, case-control validation set.", "current": { "value": 16.8, "as_of": "2021-01-01", "evidence": "klein2021clinical", "note": "as_of is the publication year; the day is not in the abstract. Case-control data, not a screening population." }, "target": { "value": 50, "rationale": "Atlas working target, not set by an agency or a regulator: the point at which a test finds more stage I cancers than it misses. No source read for this entry sets a numeric stage I threshold; the systematic review says population screening needs high specificity and reasonable sensitivity for early-stage disease.", "evidence": "wade2024multi" }, "gap_to_target": 33.2, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "16.8%", "target": "50%", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "33.2 points", "target_to_limit": null } }, { "id": "specificity", "metric": "specificity", "conditions": "Cancer signal detection, case-control validation set.", "current": { "value": 99.5, "as_of": "2021-01-01", "evidence": "klein2021clinical" }, "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "99.5%", "target": null, "limit": null, "gap_to_target": null, "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "stage-one-sensitivity", "title": "Low sensitivity for stage I cancers", "description": "In the case-control validation study sensitivity rose with stage, from 16.8% at stage I to 90.1%\nat stage IV, so the test finds mostly cancers that are already advanced. Stage I is where early\ndetection would matter most and where little tumour DNA reaches the blood.\n", "metric": "stage-one-sensitivity", "type": "scientific-unknown", "layer": "principle", "severity": "critical", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing" ], "evidence": [ "klein2021clinical" ], "search_terms": [ "stage I sensitivity cell-free DNA", "early-stage cancer ctDNA shedding" ] }, { "id": "clinical-utility", "title": "Benefit to patients not shown in a randomized trial", "description": "The NHS-Galleri randomized trial of 142,250 participants reported that its primary endpoint, a\nreduction in stage III/IV diagnoses in the test arm, was not met. Detecting cancers is not the same\nas improving outcomes; longer follow-up and other trials are needed.\n", "type": "scientific-unknown", "layer": "deployment", "severity": "high", "status": "open", "evidence": [ "neal2026performance" ], "search_terms": [ "NHS-Galleri primary endpoint", "multi-cancer early detection mortality randomized" ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing", "why": "Methylation and fragment-based tests read cell-free DNA by sequencing, so test price follows sequencing price." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "critical", "evidence": [ "klein2021clinical", "wade2024multi", "neal2026performance" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/health/multi-cancer-early-detection.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/health/multi-cancer-early-detection.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "materials/high-selectivity-membranes", "domain": "materials", "name": "High-selectivity membranes", "statement": "Membranes that separate salt from water or one gas from another with both high permeability and\nhigh selectivity, so that separation needs energy close to the thermodynamic minimum.\n", "scope": "In: polymer, ceramic and two-dimensional-material membranes for desalination and gas separation.\nOut: thermal separation processes, and sorbents (materials/low-cost-co2-sorbents).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 6, 13 ], "search_terms": [ "membrane selectivity permeability trade-off", "desalination membrane salt rejection", "two-dimensional membrane separation" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "water/low-energy-desalination", "why": "Membrane permeability and selectivity set how close staged desalination can get to the thermodynamic minimum." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "water/low-energy-desalination", "gap": "membrane-permselectivity", "title": "Membrane permeability and selectivity trade off" } ], "dependents": [ "water/low-energy-desalination" ], "dependent_domains": [ "water" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/materials/high-selectivity-membranes.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/materials/high-selectivity-membranes.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "materials/low-cost-co2-sorbents", "domain": "materials", "name": "Low-cost CO2 sorbents", "statement": "Solid or liquid materials that capture CO2 from ambient air with high capacity, fast kinetics and\nlow regeneration energy, for years of cycles, at a material cost low enough for gigatonne removal.\n", "scope": "In: amines on supports, metal-organic frameworks, hydroxide and carbonate loops for direct air\ncapture. Out: sorbents for flue gas at 4 to 15% CO2 and membranes (materials/high-selectivity-membranes).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 13 ], "search_terms": [ "direct air capture sorbent", "metal-organic framework CO2 capture ambient air", "sorbent regeneration energy" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "climate/direct-air-capture", "why": "The sorbent sets the capture capacity, the regeneration energy and a large part of the plant's cost." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "climate/direct-air-capture", "gap": "cost", "title": "Projected cost stays in the hundreds of USD per tonne" } ], "dependents": [ "climate/direct-air-capture" ], "dependent_domains": [ "climate" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/materials/low-cost-co2-sorbents.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/materials/low-cost-co2-sorbents.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "materials/low-cost-hts-conductor", "domain": "materials", "name": "Low-cost high-temperature superconducting conductor", "statement": "High-temperature superconducting tape (REBCO) that carries kiloamperes at fusion-magnet\nconditions at a price per kA-m that lets magnets of hundreds of kilometres of tape be built.\n", "scope": "In: REBCO coated conductors and their manufacturing cost. Out: low-temperature superconductors\nsuch as Nb3Sn and NbTi, and the cabling and magnet engineering built on the tape.\n", "status": "scoping", "readiness_scale": "mrl", "sdgs": [ 7, 9 ], "search_terms": [ "REBCO coated conductor cost", "HTS tape price per kA-m", "REBCO manufacturing scale-up" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "conductor-cost", "metric": "conductor-cost", "headline": true, "conditions": "REBCO tape at 20 K and 20 T, field parallel to c; derived from price per metre and critical current.", "current": { "value": 100, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "evidence": "zhao2025commercial", "note": "Derived from two numbers in the abstract (about 20 USD per metre; critical current above 200 A for a 4 mm tape), so the true value is at or below 100. The date is the year of the paper; no day is given." }, "target": { "value": 20, "rationale": "The cost target for power applications set by a 2026 cost model and roadmap for PLD REBCO tape (fumarulo2026evaluating), which also gives the roadmap of growth rate, REBCO thickness and critical current to get there.", "evidence": "fumarulo2026evaluating" }, "gap_to_target": 0.699, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "100 USD kA⁻¹ m⁻¹", "target": "20 USD kA⁻¹ m⁻¹", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "0.7 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "energy/fusion-power", "why": "Compact magnetic-confinement designs need fields above 18-20 T, for which high-temperature superconductors are the enabling technology, and their cost and complexity are a large part of the reactor core." } ], "blocks": [], "dependents": [ "energy/fusion-power" ], "dependent_domains": [ "energy" ], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [ "zhao2025commercial", "fumarulo2026evaluating" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/materials/low-cost-hts-conductor.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/materials/low-cost-hts-conductor.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci", "domain": "neurotech", "name": "High-bandwidth brain-computer interface", "statement": "An implanted interface that lets a person with paralysis communicate at close to the speed of\nnatural conversation, reliably, from a device that works for years. This entry maps research; it is\nnot medical advice.\n", "scope": "In: intracortical and other implanted interfaces that decode attempted speech or movement into\ntext, sound or control. Out: non-invasive interfaces, and neural stimulation therapies. The\nrecording electrodes are covered by neurotech/long-lived-neural-electrodes.\n", "status": "scoping", "sdgs": [ 3, 10 ], "search_terms": [ "speech neuroprosthesis", "intracortical brain-computer interface communication", "attempted speech decoding" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "speech-rate", "metric": "communication-rate", "headline": true, "conditions": "Speech-to-text decoding of attempted speech, intracortical arrays, one participant with ALS, large vocabulary.", "current": { "value": 62, "as_of": "2023-01-01", "evidence": "willett2023high", "note": "as_of is the publication year; a later study in the same field reports about 32 words per minute in self-paced conversation (Card et al., NEJM 2024), so the figure depends on the task. One participant." }, "target": { "value": 160, "rationale": "The speed of natural conversation as stated in the source paper, the rate at which a spoken exchange flows without the user waiting.", "evidence": "willett2023high" }, "gap_to_target": 0.412, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "62 words min⁻¹", "target": "160 words min⁻¹", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "0.4 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "rate-gap", "title": "Decoding rate is well below natural conversation", "description": "The 2023 demonstration decoded 62 words per minute, which the authors describe as beginning to\napproach the speed of natural conversation, 160 words per minute. The result comes from one\nparticipant, so how it generalizes across people is not established.\n", "metric": "speech-rate", "type": "engineering", "layer": "system", "severity": "high", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "neurotech/long-lived-neural-electrodes" ], "evidence": [ "willett2023high" ], "search_terms": [ "speech BCI words per minute", "unconstrained sentence decoding intracortical" ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "neurotech/long-lived-neural-electrodes", "why": "Decoding depends on recordings from implanted electrodes that must keep working for years." }, { "technology": "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "why": "Decoding runs a neural network on the neural signal; running it in a wearable or implanted device needs low energy per inference." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "high", "evidence": [ "willett2023high" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "neurotech/long-lived-neural-electrodes", "domain": "neurotech", "name": "Long-lived neural electrodes", "statement": "Implanted electrodes that record the activity of many neurons with stable signal quality for\nmany years, without damaging tissue or being rejected by the body.\n", "scope": "In: intracortical electrode arrays and thin-film or flexible probes, and the signal stability and\ntissue response over time. Out: the decoding software and the interface as a whole\n(neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci).\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 3 ], "search_terms": [ "chronic intracortical electrode signal stability", "foreign body response neural probe", "flexible neural electrode long-term recording" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [ { "technology": "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci", "why": "Decoding depends on recordings from implanted electrodes that must keep working for years." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci", "gap": "rate-gap", "title": "Decoding rate is well below natural conversation" } ], "dependents": [ "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci" ], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/neurotech/long-lived-neural-electrodes.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/neurotech/long-lived-neural-electrodes.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "domain": "quantum", "name": "Fault-tolerant quantum computer", "statement": "A quantum computer that runs algorithms of practical value, with logical error rates low enough\nthat the answer can be trusted. It does this by encoding each logical qubit in many noisy physical\nqubits and correcting errors faster than they accumulate.\n", "scope": "In scope: the full machine that error-corrects a computation, built here from physical qubits, a\nreal-time decoder, cryogenic control and refrigeration, and links between modules. Out of scope:\nnoisy intermediate-scale machines without error correction, quantum sensors and quantum networks\nfor their own sake. The decoder is covered by quantum/real-time-qec-decoder and the module links\nby quantum/quantum-interconnect.\n", "status": "mapped", "readiness": 4, "readiness_evidence": [ "google2024quantum" ], "readiness_note": "A distance-7 surface-code memory below threshold has been shown in the laboratory; no logical algorithm of practical value has run, and the wiring, refrigeration and decoding for a million-qubit machine are not built.", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "quantum error correction below threshold", "logical qubit surface code", "fault-tolerant quantum computing resource estimate" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "alan_machine": [ { "page": "chapters/quantum-alan", "title": "The quantum Alan", "url": "https://the-alan-machine.github.io/the-alan-machine/chapters/quantum-alan/index.html" }, { "page": "building-alan/quantum-hardware", "title": "Building Alan: quantum hardware", "url": "https://the-alan-machine.github.io/the-alan-machine/building-alan/quantum-hardware/index.html" } ], "impact": [ { "kind": "risk", "who": "Anyone whose data is protected by RSA-2048", "claim": "A quantum computer with less than a million noisy qubits could factor a 2048-bit RSA integer in less than a week, under the estimate's assumptions of a uniform gate error of 0.1%, a surface-code cycle of 1 microsecond and a control reaction time of 10 microseconds.", "class": "reported", "evidence": [ "gidney2025how" ], "metric": "physical-qubits", "sdgs": [ 9 ] } ], "readiness_name": "TRL 4 (4 of 9)", "metrics": [ { "id": "logical-error", "metric": "logical-error-per-cycle", "headline": true, "conditions": "Surface-code memory, distance 7, 101 qubits, superconducting processor.", "current": { "value": 0.00143, "as_of": "2024-12-09", "evidence": "google2024quantum" }, "target": { "value": 1e-12, "rationale": "Gidney's RSA-2048 estimate runs for less than a week at a 1 microsecond cycle, about 6e11 cycles (6.05e5 s divided by 1e-6 s; durations from gidney2025how). A single logical qubit must then fail with probability well under 1/(6e11), about 1.7e-12, per cycle; with many logical qubits the requirement is lower still, so 1e-12 is a floor of the order of magnitude, not a precise budget.", "evidence": "gidney2025how" }, "gap_to_target": 9.155, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "0.00143", "target": "10⁻¹²", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "9.2 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } }, { "id": "two-qubit-error", "metric": "two-qubit-gate-infidelity", "conditions": "Best reported single pair: 60 ns gate on two fluxonium qubits, randomized benchmarking.", "current": { "value": 0.0006, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "evidence": "lin2025days", "note": "as_of is the start of the publication year (PRX Quantum volume 6, 2025); the exact date was not in the abstract. One pair, not a uniform array." }, "target": { "value": 0.001, "rationale": "Gidney's RSA-2048 estimate assumes a uniform gate error of 0.1% across a square grid of qubits. The best pair already beats it, so the gap is uniformity across a million qubits, not the best pair.", "evidence": "gidney2025how" }, "gap_to_target": -0.222, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "6 × 10⁻⁴", "target": "0.001", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "met", "target_to_limit": null } }, { "id": "qubits", "metric": "physical-qubits", "conditions": "Qubits used by the distance-7 surface-code memory on the Willow processor.", "current": { "value": 101, "as_of": "2024-12-09", "evidence": "google2024quantum" }, "target": { "value": 1000000.0, "rationale": "Upper bound of the RSA-2048 resource estimate: less than a million noisy qubits (gidney2025how), down from 20 million in the 2019 estimate.", "evidence": "gidney2025how" }, "gap_to_target": 3.996, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "101 qubit", "target": "10⁶ qubit", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "4.0 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } }, { "id": "decoder", "metric": "decoder-latency", "conditions": "Average real-time decoder latency, distance-5 surface code, cycle time 1.1 microseconds.", "current": { "value": 6.3e-05, "as_of": "2024-12-09", "evidence": "google2024quantum" }, "target": { "value": 1e-05, "rationale": "The control-system reaction time of 10 microseconds assumed by the RSA-2048 resource estimate (gidney2025how).", "evidence": "gidney2025how" }, "gap_to_target": 0.799, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "6.3 × 10⁻⁵ s", "target": "10⁻⁵ s", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "0.8 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "physical-error", "title": "Physical error rates uniform across the array", "description": "Single pairs of superconducting qubits reach two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.94% (error 6e-4) with\nstability over 24 days, but a million-qubit machine needs every pair near that level at once, with\nleakage and crosstalk held down. The Willow memory ran at 0.143% logical error per cycle at\ndistance 7, short of the target by about nine orders of magnitude. Closing it means both lower\nphysical error and larger code distance on many more qubits.\n", "metric": "logical-error", "type": "engineering", "layer": "device", "severity": "high", "status": "active", "evidence": [ "google2024quantum", "lin2025days" ], "search_terms": [ "two-qubit gate fidelity 99.9 superconducting", "fluxonium gate", "leakage suppression" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Fluxonium qubits with direct two-qubit gates", "readiness": 3, "evidence": [ "lin2025days" ] } ] }, { "id": "qubit-count-and-wiring", "title": "Qubit count and control wiring", "description": "The largest error-corrected memory in the evidence uses 101 qubits; the target is up to a million.\nA coaxial line per qubit from room temperature does not scale, so control and readout must move\ninto the cryostat. Cryo-CMOS multiplexing has worked below 15 mK without degrading relaxation\ntimes, and superconducting digital demultiplexing has run a multi-qubit system, both at laboratory\nscale.\n", "metric": "qubits", "type": "engineering", "layer": "system", "severity": "critical", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics", "enablers/dilution-refrigeration" ], "evidence": [ "acharya2023multiplexed", "jordan2026quantum", "krinner2019engineering", "pauka2019cryogenic" ], "search_terms": [ "cryo-CMOS qubit control", "wiring bottleneck superconducting qubits", "digital demultiplexing cryogenic" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Cryo-CMOS multiplexer below 15 mK", "readiness": 4, "evidence": [ "acharya2023multiplexed" ] }, { "name": "Superconducting digital control electronics at millikelvin", "readiness": 4, "evidence": [ "jordan2026quantum" ] } ] }, { "id": "correlated-errors", "title": "Correlated errors from cosmic rays and radioactivity", "description": "Muons and gamma rays create quasiparticle bursts that cause correlated errors across a chip, which\nerror correction cannot absorb. A measurement on a 63-qubit processor separated the contributions\nof muons and gamma rays. Back-side phonon downconversion cut correlated poisoning by two orders of\nmagnitude on three-qubit chips; it has not been shown on a million-qubit array.\n", "metric": "logical-error", "type": "scientific-unknown", "layer": "device", "severity": "high", "status": "promising", "evidence": [ "li2025cosmic", "iaia2022phonon" ], "search_terms": [ "cosmic ray quasiparticle burst superconducting qubits", "phonon downconversion", "underground quantum processor" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Phonon downconversion with back-side normal-metal reservoirs", "readiness": 4, "evidence": [ "iaia2022phonon" ] } ] }, { "id": "decoding-at-scale", "title": "Decoding at scale and in real time", "description": "The Willow decoder averaged 63 microseconds at distance 5, six times the 10 microsecond reaction\ntime assumed in the RSA-2048 estimate, and at a cycle time of 1.1 microseconds, far from 1\nmicrosecond at thousands of logical qubits. FPGA decoders report tens to hundreds of nanoseconds per\nmeasurement round in modeled-noise studies, which is not the same quantity as end-to-end latency in\na running experiment.\n", "metric": "decoder", "type": "engineering", "layer": "system", "severity": "high", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "quantum/real-time-qec-decoder" ], "evidence": [ "google2024quantum", "liyanage2024fpga", "gidney2025how" ], "search_terms": [ "real-time decoder surface code latency", "FPGA ASIC decoder quantum error correction" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Distributed Union-Find decoder on FPGA", "readiness": 3, "evidence": [ "liyanage2024fpga" ] } ] }, { "id": "refrigeration", "title": "Refrigeration for the heat load", "description": "Each wired qubit adds passive heat load from cables and active load from signal dissipation. The\nstrongest dilution refrigerator in the evidence delivers 2 mW at about 100 mK with a base\ntemperature of 6.6 mK; no source in the atlas states the load of a million-qubit machine. Resource\nmodels of modular machines predict power and thermal load, and point to splitting the machine\nacross cryostats.\n", "metric": "qubits", "type": "engineering", "layer": "system", "severity": "high", "status": "open", "blocked_by": [ "enablers/dilution-refrigeration" ], "evidence": [ "guan2025development", "krinner2019engineering", "saadatmand2026superconducting" ], "search_terms": [ "dilution refrigerator cooling power large-scale quantum computer", "heat budget qubit wiring" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Modular machine split across several cryostats", "readiness": 2, "evidence": [ "saadatmand2026superconducting" ] } ] }, { "id": "module-links", "title": "Links between modules", "description": "A multinode machine needs entanglement between cryostats. Internode gates may be two to three\norders of magnitude noisier and slower than local operations, and a systems analysis finds link\nperformance must improve by 10 to 100 times.\n", "metric": "logical-error", "type": "engineering", "layer": "system", "severity": "high", "status": "open", "blocked_by": [ "quantum/quantum-interconnect" ], "evidence": [ "ang2024arquin" ], "search_terms": [ "microwave-to-optical transduction", "modular superconducting quantum computer links" ], "approach": [ { "name": "Optical interconnects with entanglement distillation", "readiness": 2, "evidence": [ "ang2024arquin" ] } ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "quantum/real-time-qec-decoder", "why": "Every error-correction cycle needs its syndromes decoded before the next logical operation that depends on them.", "metric": "decoder-latency", "value": 1e-05, "need": "Reaction time of 10 microseconds, the figure assumed in the RSA-2048 resource estimate (gidney2025how)." }, { "technology": "enablers/dilution-refrigeration", "why": "Superconducting qubits operate at about 10 mK, and every control line and amplifier adds heat to that stage.", "metric": "cooling-power", "need": "Enough cooling power, in one cryostat or several linked, for the heat load of up to a million physical qubits and their wiring." }, { "technology": "enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics", "why": "One coaxial line per qubit does not scale to a million qubits; control and readout electronics must sit in the cold." }, { "technology": "quantum/quantum-interconnect", "why": "A machine of up to a million qubits is unlikely to fit in one cryostat, so modules must be linked by quantum channels." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "critical", "evidence": [ "google2024quantum", "gidney2025how", "lin2025days", "acharya2023multiplexed", "jordan2026quantum", "krinner2019engineering", "pauka2019cryogenic", "li2025cosmic", "iaia2022phonon", "liyanage2024fpga", "guan2025development", "saadatmand2026superconducting", "ang2024arquin" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer.md" }, { "id": "quantum/quantum-interconnect", "domain": "quantum", "name": "Quantum interconnect", "statement": "Channels that carry quantum states or entanglement between quantum processors in separate\ncryostats or modules, so that a machine can grow past what one cryostat holds.\n", "scope": "In scope: links between modules of a superconducting machine, such as microwave-to-optical\ntransduction and optical entanglement distribution, and their fidelity and rate. Out of scope: long-distance\nquantum networks and communication for their own sake, and on-chip couplers inside a module.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "quantum interconnect modular quantum computer", "microwave-to-optical transduction", "entanglement distribution between cryostats" ], "curators": [], "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [ { "technology": "enablers/photonic-integration", "why": "Optical links between modules need low-loss waveguides, modulators and detectors integrated on chip." } ], "required_by": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "why": "A machine of up to a million qubits is unlikely to fit in one cryostat, so modules must be linked by quantum channels." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "gap": "module-links", "title": "Links between modules" } ], "dependents": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/quantum/quantum-interconnect.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/quantum/quantum-interconnect.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "quantum/real-time-qec-decoder", "domain": "quantum", "name": "Real-time quantum error-correction decoder", "statement": "Classical hardware and algorithms that turn the stream of syndrome measurements of an error-correcting\ncode into corrections, fast enough that the quantum computer never waits for them.\n", "scope": "In scope: the decoding algorithm, its implementation on FPGA or ASIC, and its latency and throughput\nduring a live experiment. Out of scope: the choice of code, the qubits themselves\n(quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer) and the cryogenic electronics it may sit on\n(enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics).\n", "status": "scoping", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "real-time decoder surface code", "FPGA decoder quantum error correction", "decoder latency" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "latency", "metric": "decoder-latency", "headline": true, "conditions": "Average real-time decoder latency in a running experiment: distance-5 surface code, cycle time 1.1 microseconds.", "current": { "value": 6.3e-05, "as_of": "2024-12-09", "evidence": "google2024quantum", "note": "Other decoder studies report times per measurement round under modeled noise (liyanage2024fpga); these are not end-to-end latencies in an experiment and are not used as current values." }, "target": { "value": 1e-05, "rationale": "The control-system reaction time of 10 microseconds assumed by the RSA-2048 resource estimate (gidney2025how).", "evidence": "gidney2025how" }, "gap_to_target": 0.799, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "6.3 × 10⁻⁵ s", "target": "10⁻⁵ s", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "0.8 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [], "requires": [ { "technology": "enablers/cryogenic-control-electronics", "why": "The decoder reads syndromes from the control system, and placing it near the qubits shortens the path and the latency." } ], "required_by": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "why": "Every error-correction cycle needs its syndromes decoded before the next logical operation that depends on them.", "metric": "decoder-latency", "value": 1e-05, "need": "Reaction time of 10 microseconds, the figure assumed in the RSA-2048 resource estimate (gidney2025how)." } ], "blocks": [ { "technology": "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "gap": "decoding-at-scale", "title": "Decoding at scale and in real time" } ], "dependents": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [ "google2024quantum", "gidney2025how" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/quantum/real-time-qec-decoder.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/quantum/real-time-qec-decoder.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "space/closed-loop-life-support", "domain": "space", "name": "Closed-loop life support", "statement": "A life-support system for people in space or on another world that recycles air, water and food\nwaste so that resupply from Earth is a small fraction of the crew's consumption.\n", "scope": "In: recovery of water and oxygen, waste processing, and bioregenerative food production for a crew.\nOut: launch to orbit (space/low-cost-access-to-orbit), radiation shielding and the power plant.\nThe headline metric, a closure fraction of mass flows, is not yet in taxonomy/metrics.toml, so the\ntechnology stays proposed.\n", "status": "proposed", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "closed-loop life support system", "bioregenerative life support", "environmental control and life support system water recovery" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [], "gaps": [], "requires": [], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": null, "evidence": [], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/space/closed-loop-life-support.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/space/closed-loop-life-support.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "space/low-cost-access-to-orbit", "domain": "space", "name": "Low-cost access to orbit", "statement": "Placing payload in low Earth orbit at a cost per kilogram low enough that mass is no longer the\nmain limit on what is built in space.\n", "scope": "In: the cost per kilogram of launch to low Earth orbit, by reusable or otherwise cheaper launch\nsystems. Out: what is built or kept alive in orbit (space/closed-loop-life-support) and in-space\ntransport beyond low Earth orbit.\n", "status": "scoping", "sdgs": [ 9 ], "search_terms": [ "launch cost per kilogram to low Earth orbit", "reusable launch vehicle economics", "experience curve space launch" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "launch-cost", "metric": "launch-cost", "headline": true, "conditions": "Average cost of sending one kilogram to orbit, all launches in the year.", "current": { "value": 3868, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "evidence": "terzi2026from", "note": "An average over a dataset of all launches, so below the list price of low-cost vehicles for some missions and above it for others." }, "target": { "value": 300, "rationale": "The central-estimate projection of the same experience-curve study for 2040; it is a forecast from a Wright's-law fit, not a goal set by an agency, and is used here as the next milestone.", "evidence": "terzi2026from" }, "gap_to_target": 1.11, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "3 868 USD kg⁻¹", "target": "300 USD kg⁻¹", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "1.1 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "reusability", "title": "Reuse of the whole launch system", "description": "Reusable first stages reduced launch cost, and providers on several continents plan reusable\nsystems. The cost per kilogram falls with cumulative payload launched, following a learning curve,\nso further reductions depend on reuse at higher rate and with more of the vehicle recovered.\n", "metric": "launch-cost", "type": "cost", "layer": "deployment", "severity": "high", "status": "active", "evidence": [ "reddy2018spacex", "terzi2026from" ], "search_terms": [ "fully reusable launch vehicle turnaround cost", "Wright's law launch cost" ] }, { "id": "market-and-debris", "title": "Market structure and orbital debris may slow the decline", "description": "The study that fits the learning curve warns that geopolitical shifts, possible monopolistic\nbehavior in commercial launch markets and the growing problem of orbital debris may temper the cost\nreductions.\n", "metric": "launch-cost", "type": "regulation", "layer": "deployment", "severity": "medium", "status": "open", "evidence": [ "terzi2026from" ], "search_terms": [ "orbital debris launch market concentration" ] } ], "requires": [], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "high", "evidence": [ "terzi2026from", "reddy2018spacex" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/space/low-cost-access-to-orbit.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/space/low-cost-access-to-orbit.md", "alan_machine": [] }, { "id": "water/low-energy-desalination", "domain": "water", "name": "Low-energy desalination", "statement": "Turning seawater into fresh water using electricity close to the thermodynamic minimum for the\nseparation, so that desalination is no longer limited by its energy bill.\n", "scope": "In: seawater desalination by membranes (reverse osmosis, electrodialysis) and the energy recovery\nand staging around them. Out: the membranes themselves, which are materials/high-selectivity-membranes;\nbrackish and wastewater reuse, which start from much lower salinity and need less energy; and the\npower source, which belongs to the energy domain.\n", "status": "scoping", "sdgs": [ 6 ], "search_terms": [ "seawater reverse osmosis specific energy consumption", "thermodynamic minimum energy of desalination", "multistage electrodialysis seawater" ], "curators": [], "last_reviewed": "2026-10-04", "readiness_name": "not assessed", "metrics": [ { "id": "sec", "metric": "specific-energy-consumption", "headline": true, "conditions": "Seawater feed, electricity per cubic metre of fresh water.", "current": { "value": 3, "as_of": "2021-01-01", "evidence": "doornbusch2021multistage", "note": "Best value found in a measurement with natural seawater in this seed pass: multistage electrodialysis, not reverse osmosis. The abstract-level search did not find a measured full-scale reverse osmosis figure with a quotable number, so the true state of the art may be lower; a curator should replace this value with a full-scale reverse osmosis measurement." }, "target": { "value": 1.0, "rationale": "A round value chosen by the atlas, not set by an agency: about the level a simulation study reached for reverse osmosis on osmotically diluted seawater (0.96 kWh/m3), and a third of the current value, so that energy stops dominating the cost of desalinated water.", "evidence": "yalamanchili2024can" }, "gap_to_target": 0.477, "target_to_limit": null, "display": { "current": "3 kWh m⁻³", "target": "1 kWh m⁻³", "limit": null, "gap_to_target": "0.5 orders of magnitude", "target_to_limit": null } } ], "gaps": [ { "id": "thermodynamic-floor", "title": "Practical plants already work near the thermodynamic limit", "description": "Reversible reverse osmosis and electrodialysis consume the Gibbs free energy of separation, and the\npractical energy of both approaches that minimum only as the number of stages grows. Reviews state\nthat most desalination technologies already work near their limit, so the remaining reduction is\nbounded and each step costs capital. The numeric value of the minimum is in the body of the cited\npapers and is not recorded here yet.\n", "metric": "sec", "type": "fundamental-limit", "layer": "principle", "severity": "high", "status": "open", "evidence": [ "wang2020derivation", "elimelech2011future", "nassrullah2020energy" ], "search_terms": [ "Gibbs free energy of separation seawater", "minimum energy desalination recovery ratio" ] }, { "id": "membrane-permselectivity", "title": "Membrane permeability and selectivity trade off", "description": "Reverse osmosis membranes trade water permeability against salt rejection. Analysis of biomimetic\nmembranes indicates what a more permeable, defect-free membrane could offer for seawater\ndesalination, but such membranes are not yet a commercial product.\n", "metric": "sec", "type": "engineering", "layer": "device", "severity": "high", "status": "active", "blocked_by": [ "materials/high-selectivity-membranes" ], "evidence": [ "werber2018permselectivity", "elimelech2011future" ], "search_terms": [ "permselectivity upper bound seawater reverse osmosis membrane", "aquaporin biomimetic membrane desalination" ] } ], "requires": [ { "technology": "materials/high-selectivity-membranes", "why": "Membrane permeability and selectivity set how close staged desalination can get to the thermodynamic minimum." } ], "required_by": [], "blocks": [], "dependents": [], "dependent_domains": [], "worst_open_severity": "high", "evidence": [ "doornbusch2021multistage", "yalamanchili2024can", "wang2020derivation", "elimelech2011future", "nassrullah2020energy", "werber2018permselectivity" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/water/low-energy-desalination.toml", "page": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/atlas/water/low-energy-desalination.md", "alan_machine": [] } ], "evidence": [ { "key": "abushawareb2024achievement", "title": "Achievement of Target Gain Larger than Unity in an Inertial Fusion Experiment", "authors": [ "Abu-Shawareb, H." ], "year": 2024, "venue": "Physical Review Letters", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.065102", "class": "established", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "note": "Author list reduced to the first author; the paper carries the collaboration author list. Shot of 2022-12-05, published 2024.", "finding": [ { "metric": "scientific-gain", "value": 1.5, "unit": "1", "conditions": "Indirect-drive implosion at the National Ignition Facility, 2.05 MJ of 351 nm laser light, 3.1 MJ fusion yield, 2022-12-05.", "quote": "an indirect drive fusion implosion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved a target gain G_{target} of 1.5" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.065102", "cited_by": [ "energy/fusion-power" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/abushawareb2024achievement.toml" }, { "key": "acharya2023multiplexed", "title": "Multiplexed superconducting qubit control at millikelvin temperatures with a low-power cryo-CMOS multiplexer", "authors": [ "Acharya, R.", "Brebels, S.", "Grill, Alexander", "Verjauw, Jeroen", "Ivanov, Ts.", "Lozano, Daniel Pérez", "Wan, Danny", "Van Damme, Jacques" ], "year": 2023, "venue": "Nature Electronics", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41928-023-01033-8", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated in the scout output. Evidence of cryo-CMOS control at millikelvin without degrading the qubit.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Radio-frequency cryo-CMOS multiplexer operating below 15 mK, interfaced with a superconducting qubit.", "quote": "operates below 15 mK with a minimal cross-coupling" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41928-023-01033-8", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/acharya2023multiplexed.toml" }, { "key": "allen2017expression", "title": "Expression of 16 Nitrogenase Proteins within the Plant Mitochondrial Matrix", "authors": [ "Allen, Robert S.", "Tilbrook, Kimberley", "Warden, Andrew C.", "Campbell, Peter C.", "Rolland, Vivien", "Singh, Surinder Pal", "Wood, Craig C." ], "year": 2017, "venue": "Frontiers in Plant Science", "type": "article", "doi": "10.3389/fpls.2017.00287", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract; expression in Nicotiana benthamiana, not a crop.", "quote": "the NifD catalytic component was the least abundant" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.00287", "cited_by": [ "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/allen2017expression.toml" }, { "key": "almogy2022cost", "title": "Cost-efficient whole genome-sequencing using novel mostly natural sequencing-by-synthesis chemistry and open fluidics platform", "authors": [ "Almogy, Gilad", "Pratt, Mark", "Oberstrass, Florian C.", "Lee, Linda", "Mazur, Dan", "Beckett, Nate", "Barad, Omer", "Soifer, Ilya" ], "year": 2022, "venue": "bioRxiv", "type": "preprint", "doi": "10.1101/2022.05.29.493900", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Preprint by the platform developer; the abstract gives cost per gigabase, not per genome. The finding below is derived, see its conditions.", "finding": [ { "metric": "sequencing-cost", "value": 90, "unit": "USD", "conditions": "Derived, not stated in the abstract: 1 USD per Gb times 30-fold coverage of a 3 Gb human genome (3,000 Mb and 30-fold coverage are the assumptions NHGRI uses for Illumina-type platforms, see wetterstrand2023dna). Cost basis of the 1 USD/Gb figure is not defined in the abstract.", "quote": "at a low cost of $1/Gb" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.29.493900", "cited_by": [ "biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/almogy2022cost.toml" }, { "key": "ang2024arquin", "title": "ARQUIN: Architectures for Multinode Superconducting Quantum Computers", "authors": [ "Ang, James", "Carini, Gabriella A.", "Chen, Yanzhu", "Chuang, Isaac L.", "Demarco, Michael", "Economou, Sophia E.", "Eickbusch, Alec", "Faraon, Andrei" ], "year": 2024, "venue": "ACM Transactions on Quantum Computing", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1145/3674151", "class": "extrapolation", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated in the scout output. Systems analysis with hardware models; the 10-100x is a requirement, not a measurement.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Systems analysis of multinode superconducting computers with optical interconnects.", "quote": "internode gates in these systems may be two to three orders of magnitude noisier and slower than local operations" }, { "conditions": "Same analysis; the link performance the algorithms require.", "quote": "We find that a factor of 10–100× better link performance is required" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1145/3674151", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/ang2024arquin.toml" }, { "key": "barcohen2019embedded", "title": "Embedded Cooling for Wide Bandgap Power Amplifiers: A Review", "authors": [ "Bar‐Cohen, Avram", "Maurer, J. J.", "Altman, David H." ], "year": 2019, "venue": "Journal of Electronic Packaging", "type": "review", "doi": "10.1115/1.4043404", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "A laboratory record on small GaN-on-diamond test devices, not a package-compatible cooler for a large AI accelerator die.", "finding": [ { "metric": "heat-flux", "value": 400000000.0, "unit": "W m^-2", "conditions": "Record heat flux above 40 kW/cm2 (4e8 W/m2) in DARPA's near-junction thermal transport program, GaN-on-diamond, embedded cooling, small heated area.", "quote": "heat fluxes, above 40 kW/cm2, achieved in Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)'s near-junction thermal transport (NJTT) program" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4043404", "cited_by": [ "enablers/heat-removal" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/barcohen2019embedded.toml" }, { "key": "bennett2023improving", "title": "Improving de novo protein binder design with deep learning", "authors": [ "Bennett, Nathaniel R.", "Coventry, Brian", "Goreshnik, Inna", "Huang, Buwei", "Allen, Aza", "Vafeados, Dionne K.", "Peng, Ying Po", "Dauparas, Justas" ], "year": 2023, "venue": "Nature Communications", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-023-38328-5", "pmid": "37149653", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated to the first eight as printed by the scout.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Deep-learning filtering of designed binders (AlphaFold2 or RoseTTAFold) against energy-based design.", "quote": "increases design success rates nearly 10-fold" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38328-5", "cited_by": [ "biotech/de-novo-protein-design" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/bennett2023improving.toml" }, { "key": "bose2024anneal", "title": "Anneal-free ultra-low loss silicon nitride integrated photonics", "authors": [ "Bose, Debapam", "Harrington, Mark", "Isichenko, Andrei", "Liu, Kaikai", "Wang, Jiawei", "Chauhan, Nitesh", "Newman, Zachary L.", "Blumenthal, Daniel J." ], "year": 2024, "venue": "Light Science & Applications", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41377-024-01503-4", "pmid": "38977674", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Waveguide loss in a CMOS-compatible low-temperature process.", "finding": [ { "metric": "waveguide-loss", "value": 1.77, "unit": "dB m^-1", "conditions": "80 nm nitride core waveguides, anneal-free process at a maximum of 250 C.", "quote": "enabling 1.77 dB m -1 loss and 14.9 million Q for 80 nm nitride core waveguides" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41377-024-01503-4", "cited_by": [ "enablers/photonic-integration" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/bose2024anneal.toml" }, { "key": "doornbusch2021multistage", "title": "Multistage electrodialysis for desalination of natural seawater", "authors": [ "Doornbusch, Gijs", "van der Wal, Marrit", "Tedesco, Michele", "Post, Jan W.", "Nijmeijer, Kitty", "Borneman, Zandrie" ], "year": 2021, "venue": "Desalination", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1016/j.desal.2021.114973", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "metric": "specific-energy-consumption", "value": 3, "unit": "kWh m^-3", "conditions": "Measured, upscaled multistage electrodialysis on natural seawater, 27 g/l in and 1.9 g/l out, stable over 18 days. Electrodialysis, not reverse osmosis.", "quote": "The system performance was stable over 18 days, with an average energy consumption of 3 kWh/m3" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2021.114973", "cited_by": [ "water/low-energy-desalination" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/doornbusch2021multistage.toml" }, { "key": "elimelech2011future", "title": "The Future of Seawater Desalination: Energy, Technology, and the Environment", "authors": [ "Elimelech, Menachem", "Phillip, William A." ], "year": 2011, "venue": "Science", "type": "review", "doi": "10.1126/science.1200488", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract of a review; no metric value.", "quote": "seawater desalination is still more energy intensive compared to conventional technologies for the treatment of fresh water" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1200488", "cited_by": [ "water/low-energy-desalination" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/elimelech2011future.toml" }, { "key": "elsworth2025measuring", "title": "Measuring the environmental impact of delivering AI at Google Scale", "authors": [ "Elsworth, Cooper", "Huang, Keguo", "Patterson, David", "Schneider, Ian", "Sedivy, Robert", "Goodman, Savannah", "Townsend, Ben", "Ranganathan, Parthasarathy" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "arXiv", "type": "preprint", "arxiv": "2508.15734", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Authors beyond the eighth are not listed in the scout output. Company-measured production serving. The figure is 0.24 Wh per median Gemini Apps text prompt, not per token, so the card carries no energy-per-token finding; the atlas cites it for the 33x one-year reduction and for production readiness.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Per prompt, not per token: median Gemini Apps text prompt, full serving stack (0.24 Wh, about 864 J). No metric of the atlas is per prompt, so this finding carries no metric.", "quote": "the median Gemini Apps text prompt consumes 0.24 Wh of energy" } ], "link": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15734", "cited_by": [ "ai/energy-efficient-inference" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/elsworth2025measuring.toml" }, { "key": "fumarulo2026evaluating", "title": "Evaluating the scalability of REBCO coated-conductor manufacturing by pulsed laser deposition", "authors": [ "Fumarulo, Savino", "Massa, Leonardo", "Sesti, Valentina", "Kirkels, Arjan", "Senatore, Carmine", "Martina, Mario L V" ], "year": 2026, "venue": "Superconductor Science and Technology", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1088/1361-6668/aea455", "class": "established", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-opus-5-5", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "note": "Bottom-up cost model and learning curves for PLD REBCO tape. The present cost estimate is in the body of the paper, not the abstract; a curator who reads it can replace the derived current value of the atlas.", "finding": [ { "metric": "conductor-cost", "value": 20, "unit": "USD kA^-1 m^-1", "conditions": "Cost target for power applications stated by the authors; not a measured price.", "quote": "we present a technology roadmap to reach the cost target of $20/(kA·m) required for power applications" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6668/aea455", "cited_by": [ "materials/low-cost-hts-conductor" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/fumarulo2026evaluating.toml" }, { "key": "gidney2025how", "title": "How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits", "authors": [ "Gidney, Craig" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "arXiv", "type": "preprint", "arxiv": "2505.15917", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Resource estimate, not a measurement. Used for targets: less than a million noisy qubits, 0.1% uniform gate error, 1 microsecond surface-code cycle, 10 microsecond control reaction time, less than a week of runtime.", "finding": [ { "metric": "physical-qubits", "value": 1000000.0, "unit": "qubit", "conditions": "Upper bound on qubits for factoring a 2048 bit RSA integer in less than a week; the abstract says less than a million, so 1e6 is the bound, not an estimate of the exact count.", "quote": "I estimate that a 2048 bit RSA integer could be factored in less than a week by a quantum computer with less than a million noisy qubits." } ], "link": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "quantum/real-time-qec-decoder" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/gidney2025how.toml" }, { "key": "goncharov2025laser", "title": "Laser requirements for inertial fusion energy target designs", "authors": [ "Goncharov, Valeri N." ], "year": 2025, "venue": "Optical Technologies for Inertial Fusion Energy", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1117/12.3041301", "class": "reported", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-opus-5-5", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "note": "Conference talk (SPIE proceedings). States the high-gain requirement for inertial fusion energy as a ratio of neutron yield to laser energy of about 100.", "finding": [ { "metric": "scientific-gain", "value": 100, "unit": "1", "conditions": "Requirement for an inertial fusion energy plant, not a measurement: neutron yield over incident laser energy.", "quote": "implosion physics can meet the high-gain requirements for IFE (when a ratio of neutron yield to incident laser energy ~100)" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3041301", "cited_by": [ "energy/fusion-power" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/goncharov2025laser.toml" }, { "key": "google2024quantum", "title": "Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold", "authors": [ "Google Quantum AI and Collaborators" ], "year": 2024, "venue": "Nature", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-024-08449-y", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-opus-5-5", "note": "Published online 2024-12-09; in print 2025. The Willow processor.", "finding": [ { "metric": "logical-error-per-cycle", "value": 0.00143, "unit": "1", "conditions": "Distance-7 surface-code memory on 101 qubits of the Willow superconducting processor.", "quote": "culminating in a 101-qubit distance-7 code with 0.143% ± 0.003% error per cycle of error correction" }, { "metric": "decoder-latency", "value": 6.3e-05, "unit": "s", "conditions": "Average real-time decoder latency, distance-5 surface code, up to a million cycles of 1.1 microseconds each.", "quote": "achieving an average decoder latency of 63 μs at distance-5 up to a million cycles, with a cycle time of 1.1 μs" }, { "metric": "physical-qubits", "value": 101, "unit": "qubit", "conditions": "Qubits used by the distance-7 surface-code memory.", "quote": "culminating in a 101-qubit distance-7 code" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08449-y", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer", "quantum/real-time-qec-decoder" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/google2024quantum.toml" }, { "key": "guan2025development", "title": "Development of a cryogen-free dilution refrigerator with a cooling power of 2000 μ W at around 100 mK", "authors": [ "Guan, Xiang", "Wang, De Ming", "Xie, Yong Jie", "Fan, Jie", "Ji, Zhong Qing" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "Review of Scientific Instruments", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1063/5.0294894", "pmid": "41329012", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Cooling power at about 100 mK, not at the 10-20 mK qubit stage. Conversion: 2000 microwatts = 2e-3 W.", "finding": [ { "metric": "cooling-power", "value": 0.002, "unit": "W", "conditions": "Cryogen-free dilution refrigerator, four parallel dilution units, two pulse-tube precoolers; at 102.48 mK; 2000 microwatts converted to 2e-3 W.", "quote": "a cooling power of 2000 μW at 102.48 mK" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0294894", "cited_by": [ "enablers/dilution-refrigeration", "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/guan2025development.toml" }, { "key": "guo2022biological", "title": "Biological nitrogen fixation in cereal crops: Progress, strategies, and perspectives", "authors": [ "Guo, Kaiyan", "Yang, Jun", "Yu, Nan", "Luo, Li", "Wang, Ertao" ], "year": 2022, "venue": "Plant Communications", "type": "review", "doi": "10.1016/j.xplc.2022.100499", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract of a review.", "quote": "Engineering cereal crops that can fix nitrogen like legumes or associate with nitrogen-fixing microbiomes could help to avoid the problems caused by the overuse of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer." } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xplc.2022.100499", "cited_by": [ "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/guo2022biological.toml" }, { "key": "ho2023limits", "title": "Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors", "authors": [ "Ho, Anson", "Erdil, Ege", "Besiroglu, Tamay" ], "year": 2023, "venue": "arXiv", "type": "preprint", "arxiv": "2312.08595", "class": "extrapolation", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "An estimate of the maximum CMOS efficiency from first-principles energy costs and empirical parameters, in FP4 operations per joule; it is a projection, not a measurement.", "finding": [ { "metric": "energy-efficiency", "value": 4700000000000000.0, "unit": "FLOP J^-1", "conditions": "Geometric-mean estimate of the maximum floating point operations per joule for CMOS microprocessors, counted in FP4 operations, combining transistor switching, interconnect capacitance and leakage. An estimate of a ceiling, not a current value.", "quote": "Combining these yields a geometric mean estimate of 4.7e15 FP4/J for the maximum CMOS energy efficiency, roughly two hundred-fold more efficient than current microprocessors." } ], "link": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.08595", "cited_by": [ "ai/energy-efficient-inference" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/ho2023limits.toml" }, { "key": "huisman2019roadmap", "title": "A Roadmap toward Engineered Nitrogen-Fixing Nodule Symbiosis", "authors": [ "Huisman, Rik", "Geurts, René" ], "year": 2019, "venue": "Plant Communications", "type": "review", "doi": "10.1016/j.xplc.2019.100019", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract of a review.", "quote": "the long-standing objective to engineer the nitrogen-fixing nodulation trait on non-leguminous crop plants has not been achieved yet" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xplc.2019.100019", "cited_by": [ "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/huisman2019roadmap.toml" }, { "key": "iaia2022phonon", "title": "Phonon downconversion to suppress correlated errors in superconducting qubits", "authors": [ "Iaia, Vito", "Ku, Jaseung", "Ballard, A.", "Larson, C. P.", "Yelton, E.", "Liu, C. H.", "Patel, S.", "McDermott, Robert" ], "year": 2022, "venue": "Nature Communications", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-022-33997-0", "pmid": "36307415", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated in the scout output. A mitigation approach for correlated errors; no atlas metric value taken.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Back-side normal-metal phonon downconversion on qubit chips, three qubits monitored per chip.", "quote": "observe a two-order of magnitude reduction in correlated poisoning due to background radiation" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33997-0", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/iaia2022phonon.toml" }, { "key": "jiang2025rfdiffusion", "title": "RFdiffusion Exhibits Low Success Rate in De Novo Design of Functional Protein Binders for Biochemical Detection", "authors": [ "Jiang, Bruce", "Li, Xiaoxiao", "Guo, Amber", "Wei, Moris", "Wu, Junhua" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "bioRxiv", "type": "preprint", "doi": "10.1101/2025.02.07.636769", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Preprint; six targets, five designs each, one group. A counterweight to the success rates reported by the method developers.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Six targets, five RFdiffusion designs each, tested by one group.", "quote": "Binders for the other targets failed due to low expression, nonspecific binding, or undetectable affinity" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.07.636769", "cited_by": [ "biotech/de-novo-protein-design" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/jiang2025rfdiffusion.toml" }, { "key": "jordan2026quantum", "title": "A quantum computer controlled by superconducting digital electronics at millikelvin temperature", "authors": [ "Jordan, Caleb", "Bernhardt, Jacob", "Rahamim, Joseph", "Kirichenko, Alex", "Bharadwaj, Karthik Srikanth", "Fry-Bouriaux, Louis", "Somoroff, Aaron", "Porsch, Katie" ], "year": 2026, "venue": "Nature Electronics", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41928-026-01576-6", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated in the scout output. First multi-qubit system with superconducting digital control electronics at millikelvin.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Multi-qubit system with superconducting digital demultiplexing of control lines.", "quote": "The system utilizes digital demultiplexing, breaking the linear scaling of control lines to number of qubits." } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41928-026-01576-6", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/jordan2026quantum.toml" }, { "key": "keith2018process", "title": "A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere", "authors": [ "Keith, David W." ], "year": 2018, "venue": "Joule", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1016/j.joule.2018.05.006", "class": "extrapolation", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "note": "A design for a 1 Mt-CO2 per year plant with pilot-plant data; the cost is a design estimate, not a measured cost of an operating plant.", "finding": [ { "metric": "capture-cost", "value": 94, "unit": "USD t^-1", "conditions": "Lower end of the levelized cost range of a designed aqueous-KOH plant capturing about 1 Mt-CO2 per year, with CO2 delivered at 15 MPa; capture only, storage not included. Upper end 232 USD/t. Design estimate, not a current value.", "quote": "the levelized cost per ton CO 2 captured from the atmosphere ranges from 94 to 232 $/t-CO 2" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.05.006", "cited_by": [ "climate/direct-air-capture" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/keith2018process.toml" }, { "key": "klein2021clinical", "title": "Clinical validation of a targeted methylation-based multi-cancer early detection test using an independent validation set", "authors": [ "Klein, Eric A.", "Richards, Donald", "Cohn, Allen Lee", "Tummala, Meghna", "Lapham, Rosanna L.", "Cosgrove, David Owen", "Chung, Gina G.", "Clement, Jessica" ], "year": 2021, "venue": "Annals of Oncology", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1016/j.annonc.2021.05.806", "pmid": "34176681", "nct": "NCT02889978", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated to the first eight as printed by the scout. Case-control validation set (CCGA substudy 3), not a screening population.", "finding": [ { "metric": "sensitivity", "value": 16.8, "unit": "%", "conditions": "Stage I cancers, any of more than 50 cancer types, blood-based methylation MCED test, independent validation set of 4077 participants (case-control).", "quote": "stage I: 16.8% (14.5% to 19.5%)" }, { "metric": "specificity", "value": 99.5, "unit": "%", "conditions": "Cancer signal detection in the independent validation set, 1254 non-cancer participants.", "quote": "Specificity for cancer signal detection was 99.5%" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annonc.2021.05.806", "cited_by": [ "health/multi-cancer-early-detection" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/klein2021clinical.toml" }, { "key": "krinner2019engineering", "title": "Engineering cryogenic setups for 100-qubit scale superconducting circuit systems", "authors": [ "Krinner, Sebastian", "Storz, Simon", "Kurpiers, Philipp", "Magnard, Paul", "Heinsoo, Johannes", "Keller, Raphael", "Lütolf, J.", "Eichler, Christopher" ], "year": 2019, "venue": "EPJ Quantum Technology", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1140/epjqt/s40507-019-0072-0", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated in the scout output. Heat budget of wiring in a dilution refrigerator.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Measured passive heat load of stainless steel and NbTi coaxial cables and active load of signal dissipation.", "quote": "The passive heat load of stainless steel and NbTi coaxial cables and the active load due to signal dissipation are measured" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1140/epjqt/s40507-019-0072-0", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/krinner2019engineering.toml" }, { "key": "li2025cosmic", "title": "Cosmic-ray-induced correlated errors in superconducting qubit array", "authors": [ "Li, Xuegang", "Wang, Junhua", "Jiang, Yao-Yao", "Xue, Guangming", "Cai, Xiaoxia", "Zhou, Jun", "Gong, Ming", "Liu, Zhaofeng" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "Nature Communications", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-025-59778-z", "pmid": "40393963", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated in the scout output (first eight shown). Mechanism evidence for the correlated-error gap; no atlas metric value taken.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Direct observation of muon-induced quasiparticle bursts and correlated errors on a 63-qubit processor, with muon detectors in the dilution refrigerator.", "quote": "We directly observe QP bursts leading to correlated errors that are induced solely by muons and separate the contributions of muons and γ-rays." } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59778-z", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/li2025cosmic.toml" }, { "key": "lin2025days", "title": "24 Days-Stable CNOT Gate on Fluxonium Qubits with Over 99.9% Fidelity", "authors": [ "Lin, Wei-Ju", "Cho, Hyunheung", "Chen, Yinqi", "Vavilov, Maxim", "Wang, Chen", "Manucharyan, Vladimir" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "PRX Quantum", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1103/prxquantum.6.010349", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Two inductively coupled fluxonium qubits; one pair, not an array.", "finding": [ { "metric": "two-qubit-gate-infidelity", "value": 0.0006, "unit": "1", "conditions": "60 ns two-qubit gate on one pair of fluxonium qubits, randomized benchmarking; average gate fidelity 99.94%, so infidelity 1 - 0.9994 = 6e-4.", "quote": "estimated using randomized benchmarking, was as high as 99.94%" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1103/prxquantum.6.010349", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/lin2025days.toml" }, { "key": "liyanage2024fpga", "title": "FPGA-Based Distributed Union-Find Decoder for Surface Codes", "authors": [ "Liyanage, Namitha", "Wu, Yue", "Tagare, Siona", "Zhong, Lin" ], "year": 2024, "venue": "IEEE Transactions on Quantum Engineering", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1109/tqe.2024.3467271", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Decoding time per measurement round under modeled noise, not the end-to-end latency of a real experiment; not comparable with the Willow decoder-latency finding.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Xilinx VCU129 FPGA decoding distance 51 under phenomenological noise; average latency per measurement round.", "quote": "decoding d=51 on a Xilinx VCU129 FPGA with an average latency of 544 ns per measurement round" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1109/tqe.2024.3467271", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/liyanage2024fpga.toml" }, { "key": "mcgeoch2025development", "title": "Development path to an ArF laser-fusion pilot power plant", "authors": [ "McGeoch, Malcolm W.", "Obenschain, Stephen P." ], "year": 2025, "venue": "Optical Technologies for Inertial Fusion Energy", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1117/12.3047795", "class": "reported", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-opus-5-5", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "note": "Conference talk (SPIE proceedings). Independent statement of the same gain requirement, with simulations of direct drive by an argon fluoride laser.", "finding": [ { "metric": "scientific-gain", "value": 100, "unit": "1", "conditions": "Requirement for a laser-fusion power plant, from simulations at the Naval Research Laboratory; not a measurement.", "quote": "the gains (>100) needed for a laser-fusion power plant can be achieved with less than 1MJ of laser energy" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3047795", "cited_by": [ "energy/fusion-power" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/mcgeoch2025development.toml" }, { "key": "nassrullah2020energy", "title": "Energy for desalination: A state-of-the-art review", "authors": [ "Nassrullah, Haya", "Anis, Shaheen Fatima", "Hashaikeh, Raed", "Hilal, Nidal" ], "year": 2020, "venue": "Desalination", "type": "review", "doi": "10.1016/j.desal.2020.114569", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract of a review.", "quote": "Most technologies are already working near their thermodynamic limit, while posing challenges in further SEC reductions." } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2020.114569", "cited_by": [ "water/low-energy-desalination" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/nassrullah2020energy.toml" }, { "key": "neal2026performance", "title": "Performance of a multi-cancer early detection test in the randomized controlled NHS-Galleri trial", "authors": [ "Neal, Richard D", "Dolly, Saoirse Olivia", "Johnson, Peter", "Jones, Helen", "Kumar, Sir Harpal", "Lee, Lennard Y. W.", "Lee, Yujin", "Liang, Wei" ], "year": 2026, "venue": "Nature Medicine", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41591-026-04652-8", "pmid": "42773209", "nct": "NCT05611632", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated to the first eight as printed by the scout. Descriptive secondary endpoints; the primary endpoint was reported elsewhere.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "NHS-Galleri randomized trial, 142,250 participants aged 50-77.", "quote": "the primary endpoint of a reduction in the incidence of stage III/IV cancer diagnoses in the intervention arm versus control arm was not met" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-04652-8", "cited_by": [ "health/multi-cancer-early-detection" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/neal2026performance.toml" }, { "key": "oviedo2026energy", "title": "Energy use of AI inference, efficiency pathways, and test-time scaling", "authors": [ "Oviedo, Felipe", "Kazhamiaka, Fiodar", "Choukse, Esha", "Kim, Allen", "Luers, Amy Lynd", "Nakagawa, Melanie", "Bianchini, Ricardo", "Lavista Ferres, Juan" ], "year": 2026, "venue": "Joule", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1016/j.joule.2026.102430", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "A bottom-up model with deployment assumptions, not a measurement: 0.31 Wh per query for frontier-scale models, not per token, so its finding carries no metric. Cited for the 8 to 20 times line-of-sight energy reduction the authors estimate.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Per query, not per token: bottom-up model estimate for frontier-scale models (>200B parameters) on H100 nodes (0.31 Wh, about 1128 J). No metric of the atlas is per query, so this finding carries no metric.", "quote": "we estimate a median energy of 0.31 Wh/query" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2026.102430", "cited_by": [ "ai/energy-efficient-inference" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/oviedo2026energy.toml" }, { "key": "pacesa2025one", "title": "One-shot design of functional protein binders with BindCraft", "authors": [ "Pacesa, Martin", "Nickel, Lennart", "Schellhaas, Christian", "Schmidt, Joseph H.", "Pyatova, Ekaterina", "Kissling, Lucas", "Barendse, Patrick", "Choudhury, Jagrity" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "Nature", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-025-09429-6", "pmid": "40866699", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated to the first eight as printed by the scout. The abstract gives a range across targets; the atlas takes the lower end as the value that holds across the targets tested.", "finding": [ { "metric": "experimental-hit-rate", "value": 10, "unit": "%", "conditions": "De novo protein binder design with an AlphaFold2-based pipeline; the range of experimental success rates across the targets tested, lower end.", "quote": "experimental success rates of 10–100%" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09429-6", "cited_by": [ "biotech/de-novo-protein-design" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/pacesa2025one.toml" }, { "key": "park2024pjbit", "title": "A 0.65-pJ/bit 3.6-TB/s/mm I/O Interface with XTalk Minimizing Affine Signaling for Next-Generation HBM with High Interconnect Density", "authors": [ "Park, Hyunjun", "Shin, Ji-Won", "Kim, Hanseok", "Kim, Ji‐Hee", "Shin, Haengbeom", "Kim, Tae‐Hoon", "Park, Jung-Hun", "Choi, Woo‐Seok" ], "year": 2024, "venue": "arXiv", "type": "preprint", "arxiv": "2404.05119", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Fabricated prototype in 28 nm CMOS; the figure is the I/O interface only (die-to-die over a silicon interposer), not the DRAM array energy.", "finding": [ { "metric": "energy-per-bit", "value": 6.5e-13, "unit": "J", "conditions": "Die-to-die I/O transceiver over silicon interposer or similar high-density interconnect, 28 nm CMOS prototype, edge density 3.6 TB/s/mm. 0.65 pJ/b converted to joules.", "quote": "the prototype XMAS transceiver achieves an edge density of 3.6TB/s/mm and an energy efficiency of 0.65pJ/b" } ], "link": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.05119", "cited_by": [ "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "computing/low-energy-data-movement" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/park2024pjbit.toml" }, { "key": "pauka2019cryogenic", "title": "A Cryogenic Interface for Controlling Many Qubits", "authors": [ "Pauka, S. J.", "Das, K.", "Kalra, R.", "Moini, A.", "Yang, Y.", "Trainer, M.", "Bousquet, A.", "Cantaloube, C." ], "year": 2019, "venue": "arXiv", "type": "preprint", "arxiv": "1912.01299", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated in the scout output. Demonstrated on a quantum dot test device, not a superconducting qubit.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "CMOS control platform of 100,000 transistors near 100 mK, benchmarked on a quantum dot test device.", "quote": "showing that the control of thousands of gate electrodes is feasible within the cooling power of commercially available dilution refrigerators" } ], "link": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.01299", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/pauka2019cryogenic.toml" }, { "key": "reddy2018spacex", "title": "The SpaceX Effect", "authors": [ "Reddy, Vidya Sagar" ], "year": 2018, "venue": "New Space", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1089/space.2017.0032", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract of a survey.", "quote": "reusability is fast becoming the norm of the launch vehicle industry" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1089/space.2017.0032", "cited_by": [ "space/low-cost-access-to-orbit" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/reddy2018spacex.toml" }, { "key": "saadatmand2026superconducting", "title": "Superconducting qubits in the millions: The potential and limitations of modularity", "authors": [ "Saadatmand, S. N." ], "year": 2026, "venue": "Physical Review Applied", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1103/k3d5-v43c", "class": "extrapolation", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Only the first author was printed by the scout; the full list is longer. Architectural resource model, no measured value.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Resource-estimation model of a modular superconducting fault-tolerant computer with coherent links.", "quote": "Our tool can predict the size, power consumption, and execution time of these algorithms based on explicit assumptions about the physical layout, thermal load, and modular connectivity of the system." } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1103/k3d5-v43c", "cited_by": [ "quantum/fault-tolerant-quantum-computer" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/saadatmand2026superconducting.toml" }, { "key": "sievert2024considering", "title": "Considering technology characteristics to project future costs of direct air capture", "authors": [ "Sievert, Katrin" ], "year": 2024, "venue": "Joule", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1016/j.joule.2024.02.005", "class": "extrapolation", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "note": "A projection at 1 Gt-CO2 per year of cumulative capacity, not a present cost.", "finding": [ { "metric": "net-removal-cost", "value": 374, "unit": "USD t^-1", "conditions": "Projection, solid sorbent DACCS, cost of CO2 net removed at 1 Gt-CO2/year cumulative capacity; 90% confidence range 281 to 579 USD/t. Not a current value.", "quote": "At 1 Gt-CO2/year cumulative capacity, we project DACCS costs at $341/tCO2 ($226–$544 at 90% confidence) for liquid solvent DACCS, $374/tCO2 ($281–$579) for solid sorbent DACCS" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.02.005", "cited_by": [ "climate/direct-air-capture" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/sievert2024considering.toml" }, { "key": "terzi2026from", "title": "From Sputnik to Starship: Estimating the experience curve of space launch technology", "authors": [ "Terzi, Alessio", "Nicoli, Francesco" ], "year": 2026, "venue": "PNAS Nexus", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag217", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "metric": "launch-cost", "value": 3868, "unit": "USD kg^-1", "conditions": "Average cost of sending one kilogram to orbit across all launches in 2025, from a standardized dataset of more than 4,400 launches; an average over all vehicles, not the price of the cheapest vehicle.", "quote": "the average cost of sending a kilogram to orbit has dropped from 87,023 USD in 1960 to 3,868 USD in 2025" }, { "metric": "launch-cost", "value": 300, "unit": "USD kg^-1", "conditions": "Central-estimate projection for 2040 from a Wright's-law experience curve; a projection, not a measurement.", "quote": "the average cost is expected to fall to 1,600 USD/kg by 2030 and 300 USD/kg by 2040" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag217", "cited_by": [ "space/low-cost-access-to-orbit" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/terzi2026from.toml" }, { "key": "vandeynze2018nitrogen", "title": "Nitrogen fixation in a landrace of maize is supported by a mucilage-associated diazotrophic microbiota", "authors": [ "Van Deynze, Allen", "Zamora, Pablo", "Delaux, Pierre-Marc", "Heitmann, Cristobal", "Jayaraman, Dhileepkumar", "Rajasekar, Shanmugam", "Graham, Danielle", "Maëda, Junko" ], "year": 2018, "venue": "PLoS Biology", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.2006352", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "metric": "nitrogen-derived-from-atmosphere", "value": 82, "unit": "%", "conditions": "Upper end of the 29-82% range measured by 15N field experiments over 5 years in an indigenous Sierra Mixe maize landrace in nitrogen-depleted soil, not a modern high-yield cultivar.", "quote": "atmospheric nitrogen fixation contributed 29%-82% of the nitrogen nutrition of Sierra Mixe maize" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2006352", "cited_by": [ "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/vandeynze2018nitrogen.toml" }, { "key": "vellaisamy2026characterization", "title": "Characterization of Request and Token Energy Costs for LLM Inference Workloads on GPU Platforms", "authors": [ "Vellaisamy, Prabhu", "Lam, Vanessa", "Blanton, Shawn", "Shen, John Paul" ], "year": 2026, "venue": "arXiv", "type": "preprint", "arxiv": "2608.28044", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Token energy here is the marginal-plus-amortized energy per output token over the inference window of one batched request, measured on GPUs; it falls as output length grows because the fixed prefill cost is spread over more tokens.", "finding": [ { "metric": "energy-per-token", "value": 0.72, "unit": "J", "conditions": "Llama-3.2-1B (dense, 1B parameters) on an NVIDIA H200 GPU, batch size 16, context 4K tokens, 512 output tokens. At 10 output tokens the same setup gives 7.46 J/token. A 1B model is far smaller than frontier models.", "quote": "increasing output length from 10 to 512 tokens reduces token energy from 7.46 to 0.72 J/token" } ], "link": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.28044", "cited_by": [ "ai/energy-efficient-inference" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/vellaisamy2026characterization.toml" }, { "key": "wade2024multi", "title": "Multi-cancer early detection tests for general population screening: a systematic literature review", "authors": [ "Wade, Ros", "Nevitt, Sarah J", "Liu, Yiwen", "Harden, Melissa", "Khouja, Claire", "Raine, Gary", "Churchill, Rachel C.", "Dias, Sofia" ], "year": 2024, "venue": "medRxiv", "type": "preprint", "doi": "10.1101/2024.02.14.24302576", "class": "reported", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Preprint. Cited only for the statement of what population screening needs; it sets no numeric threshold.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Systematic review of MCED tests for population screening.", "quote": "The use of an MCED test for population screening requires a high specificity and a reasonable sensitivity to detect early-stage disease" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.02.14.24302576", "cited_by": [ "health/multi-cancer-early-detection" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/wade2024multi.toml" }, { "key": "wang2020derivation", "title": "Derivation of the Theoretical Minimum Energy of Separation of Desalination Processes", "authors": [ "Wang, Li Ares", "Violet, Camille", "DuChanois, Ryan M.", "Elimelech, Menachem" ], "year": 2020, "venue": "Journal of Chemical Education", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1021/acs.jchemed.0c01194", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract; the minimum is the Gibbs free energy of separation, its value is in the body of the paper.", "quote": "the energy consumption of these processes approaches the minimum thermodynamic limit with increased process staging" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jchemed.0c01194", "cited_by": [ "water/low-energy-desalination" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/wang2020derivation.toml" }, { "key": "wei2026microfluidic", "title": "Microfluidic cooling for high-heat-flux chips: Thermal-path compression, bottleneck migration and near-junction limits", "authors": [ "Wei, Jie", "Lin, Shuyuan", "Fu, Junhao", "Zhao, Zhangchi", "Wei, Ning" ], "year": 2026, "venue": "Thermo-X", "type": "review", "doi": "10.70401/tx.2026.0024", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "The review itself warns that a record heat flux is not transferable without the heated area, temperature criterion, coolant state and hydraulic cost.", "finding": [ { "metric": "heat-flux", "value": 10000000.0, "unit": "W m^-2", "conditions": "Upper end of the range the review gives for microfluidic cooling, 10^2 to 10^3 W/cm2 (1e6 to 1e7 W/m2); 10^3 W/cm2 converted to W/m2. Heated area, coolant and temperature criterion vary across the cited work.", "quote": "Microfluidic cooling can support 102-103 W/cm2 heat fluxes and higher local loads" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.70401/tx.2026.0024", "cited_by": [ "ai/energy-efficient-inference", "enablers/heat-removal" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/wei2026microfluidic.toml" }, { "key": "wen2021enabling", "title": "Enabling Biological Nitrogen Fixation for Cereal Crops in Fertilized Fields", "authors": [ "Wen, Amy", "Havens, Keira L.", "Bloch, Sarah E.", "Shah, Neal", "Higgins, Douglas A.", "Davis-Richardson, Austin G.", "Sharon, Judee", "Rezaei, Farzaneh" ], "year": 2021, "venue": "ACS Synthetic Biology", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1021/acssynbio.1c00049", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract; an engineered Kosakonia strain, in nitrogen-rich environments.", "quote": "increasing nitrogen fixation activity 122-fold in nitrogen-rich environments" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1021/acssynbio.1c00049", "cited_by": [ "food/nitrogen-fixing-cereals" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/wen2021enabling.toml" }, { "key": "werber2018permselectivity", "title": "Permselectivity limits of biomimetic desalination membranes", "authors": [ "Werber, Jay R.", "Elimelech, Menachem" ], "year": 2018, "venue": "Science Advances", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aar8266", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Qualitative statement from the abstract; the numeric limits are in the body of the paper.", "quote": "Defect-free biomimetic membranes thus offer great potential for seawater desalination and ultrapure water production" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar8266", "cited_by": [ "water/low-energy-desalination" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/werber2018permselectivity.toml" }, { "key": "wetterstrand2023dna", "title": "DNA Sequencing Costs: Data", "authors": [ "Wetterstrand, Kris A." ], "year": 2023, "venue": "NHGRI Genome Sequencing Program", "type": "dataset", "url": "https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data", "accessed": "2026-10-04", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Page last updated 2023-05-16. The cost table itself is in a downloadable spreadsheet, not in the page text, so no finding quotes a number; the page is cited for the definition of cost per genome (3,000 Mb, 30-fold coverage, production costs only).", "finding": [ { "conditions": "NHGRI cost-per-genome definition.", "quote": "the assumed genome size was 3,000 Mb (i.e., the size of a human genome)" } ], "link": "https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data", "cited_by": [ "biotech/low-cost-dna-sequencing" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/wetterstrand2023dna.toml" }, { "key": "willett2023high", "title": "A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis", "authors": [ "Willett, Francis R.", "Kunz, Erin M.", "Fan, Chaofei", "Avansino, Donald T.", "Wilson, Guy H", "Choi, Eun Young", "Kamdar, Foram B.", "Glasser, Matthew F." ], "year": 2023, "venue": "Nature", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-023-06377-x", "pmid": "37612500", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Author list truncated to the first eight as printed by the scout. One participant with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.", "finding": [ { "metric": "communication-rate", "value": 62, "unit": "words min^-1", "conditions": "Speech-to-text decoding of attempted speech from intracortical microelectrode arrays, one participant, 125,000-word vocabulary at 23.8% word error rate.", "quote": "Our participant’s attempted speech was decoded at 62 words per minute" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06377-x", "cited_by": [ "neurotech/high-bandwidth-bci" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/willett2023high.toml" }, { "key": "xiang2022silicon", "title": "Silicon nitride passive and active photonic integrated circuits: trends and prospects", "authors": [ "Xiang, Chao", "Jin, Warren", "Bowers, John Edward" ], "year": 2022, "venue": "Photonics Research", "type": "review", "doi": "10.1364/prj.452936", "class": "established", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "note": "Perspective article reviewing the state of the art.", "finding": [ { "conditions": "Review of hybrid and heterogeneous integration of III-V with silicon nitride.", "quote": "the integration of Si and III-V materials has enabled new large-scale, advanced silicon nitride-based photonic integrated circuits with versatile functionality" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1364/prj.452936", "cited_by": [ "enablers/photonic-integration" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/xiang2022silicon.toml" }, { "key": "yalamanchili2024can", "title": "Can a forward osmosis-reverse osmosis hybrid system achieve 90 % wastewater recovery and desalination energy below 1 kWh/m3? A design and simulation study", "authors": [ "Yalamanchili, Rajashree", "Rodríguez-Roda, Ignasi", "Galizia, Albert", "Blandin, Gaëtan" ], "year": 2024, "venue": "Desalination", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1016/j.desal.2024.117767", "class": "extrapolation", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "finding": [ { "metric": "specific-energy-consumption", "value": 0.96, "unit": "kWh m^-3", "conditions": "Software simulation (not a measurement) of reverse osmosis on seawater diluted by forward osmosis with wastewater, to 7.4 g/l.", "quote": "enabling RO desalination at 0.96 kWh/m3" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2024.117767", "cited_by": [ "water/low-energy-desalination" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/yalamanchili2024can.toml" }, { "key": "zhao2025commercial", "title": "Commercial compact fusion triggered REBCO tape industry: Pulsed laser deposition technology opportunities and challenges", "authors": [ "Zhao, Yue" ], "year": 2025, "venue": "Superconductivity", "type": "article", "doi": "10.1016/j.supcon.2025.100188", "class": "established", "added": "2026-10-04", "added_by": "agent:claude-sonnet-5", "status": "machine-checked", "checked": "2026-10-04", "note": "The abstract gives the price per metre and the critical current of PLD-REBCO tapes in separate clauses; the conductor cost in USD per kA per metre is derived: 20 USD/m divided by 0.2 kA is 100. A curator must confirm that the two numbers describe the same tape.", "finding": [ { "metric": "conductor-cost", "value": 100, "unit": "USD kA^-1 m^-1", "conditions": "Derived: about 20 USD per metre divided by a critical current above 200 A for a 4 mm wide tape at 20 K, 20 T, field parallel to c. The critical current is a lower bound, so the true cost per kA-m is at or below this value. PLD-based REBCO tape, 2025.", "quote": "PLD-REBCO tapes have demonstrated excellent in-field performance ( I c >200 A-4 mm @20K, 20T, B//c) and competitive pricing ( ∼ $20/meter)" } ], "link": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.supcon.2025.100188", "cited_by": [ "materials/low-cost-hts-conductor" ], "source": "https://github.com/scape-velocity/escape-velocity/blob/main/evidence/zhao2025commercial.toml" } ] }