Evidence / ho2023limits

Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors

Ho, Anson, Erdil, Ege, Besiroglu, Tamay
arXiv, 2023

extrapolationmachine checkedpreprint

An estimate of the maximum CMOS efficiency from first-principles energy costs and empirical parameters, in FP4 operations per joule; it is a projection, not a measurement.

Findings

Computing energy efficiency: 4.7 × 10¹⁵ FLOP J⁻¹

Geometric-mean estimate of the maximum floating point operations per joule for CMOS microprocessors, counted in FP4 operations, combining transistor switching, interconnect capacitance and leakage. An estimate of a ceiling, not a current value.

Combining these yields a geometric mean estimate of 4.7e15 FP4/J for the maximum CMOS energy efficiency, roughly two hundred-fold more efficient than current microprocessors.

Cited by

Energy-efficient AI inference

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