Escape Velocity
The Alan MachineGitHub

What each technology still needs

Escape Velocity is an open atlas of technologies on their way to maturity: where each one stands, the target that would make it useful, the physical limit behind that target, the gaps in between and the other technologies it waits on. Every number has a source.

35technologies, 2 fully mapped
13domains
26open gaps, 7 critical
51evidence cards, 0 verified by a curator

Distance to target

All gaps

The headline metric of each technology: how far the best demonstrated value is from the target, in orders of magnitude. Open a technology for the conditions and the evidence behind each value.

Fault-tolerant quantum computer Logical error per cycle: 0.00143 now, 10⁻¹² target
Fusion power Scientific gain (Q_sci): 1.5 now, 100 target
Low-cost access to orbit Launch cost: 3 868 USD kg⁻¹ now, 300 USD kg⁻¹ target
Energy-efficient AI inference Energy per token: 0.72 J now, 0.07 J target
High-flux heat removal Heat flux removed: 10⁷ W m⁻² now, 10⁸ W m⁻² target
De novo protein design Experimental hit rate: 10% now, 90% target
Low-cost DNA sequencing Cost per human genome: 90 USD now, 10 USD target
Low-energy data movement Energy per bit moved: 6.5 × 10⁻¹³ J now, 10⁻¹³ J target
Real-time quantum error-correction decoder Decoder latency: 6.3 × 10⁻⁵ s now, 10⁻⁵ s target
Low-cost high-temperature superconducting conductor Conductor cost: 100 USD kA⁻¹ m⁻¹ now, 20 USD kA⁻¹ m⁻¹ target
Low-energy desalination Specific energy consumption: 3 kWh m⁻³ now, 1 kWh m⁻³ target
High-bandwidth brain-computer interface Communication rate: 62 words min⁻¹ now, 160 words min⁻¹ target
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Percentage metrics

Multi-cancer early detection Sensitivity: 16.8% now, 50% target
Nitrogen-fixing cereals Nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa): 82% now, 100% target
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Domains

See the graph

Water

Clean water for people, farms and industry: desalination, purification and reuse.

1 technology · 2 open gaps

Critical gaps

  1. Moving weights and cache costs more than the arithmetic
    Energy-efficient AI inference · engineering · system
  2. Projected cost stays in the hundreds of USD per tonne
    Direct air capture · cost · deployment
  3. Gain of about 100 at power-plant repetition rates
    Fusion power · scientific unknown · principle
  4. Fixation shown in a landrace, not in high-yield cultivars
    Nitrogen-fixing cereals · scientific unknown · system
  5. A working nitrogenase inside plant cells
    Nitrogen-fixing cereals · engineering · device
  6. Low sensitivity for stage I cancers
    Multi-cancer early detection · scientific unknown · principle
  7. Qubit count and control wiring
    Fault-tolerant quantum computer · engineering · system

Most depended on

  1. Photonic integration
    needed by Low-energy data movement, Quantum interconnect
  2. Low-energy data movement
    needed by Energy-efficient AI inference · holds open 2 gaps
  3. Beyond-CMOS logic
    needed by Energy-efficient AI inference · holds open 1 gap
  4. High-flux heat removal
    needed by Energy-efficient AI inference · holds open 1 gap
  5. Energy-efficient AI inference
    needed by AI for science, High-bandwidth brain-computer interface
  6. AI for science
    needed by De novo protein design, Antibiotics for resistant bacteria · holds open 1 gap
  7. Cryogenic control electronics
    needed by Fault-tolerant quantum computer, Real-time quantum error-correction decoder · holds open 1 gap
  8. Plant genome engineering
    needed by Nitrogen-fixing cereals · holds open 2 gaps