Evidence / gidney2025how
How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits
Gidney, Craig
arXiv, 2025
reportedmachine checkedpreprint
Resource estimate, not a measurement. Used for targets: less than a million noisy qubits, 0.1% uniform gate error, 1 microsecond surface-code cycle, 10 microsecond control reaction time, less than a week of runtime.
Findings
Physical qubits: 10⁶ qubit
Upper bound on qubits for factoring a 2048 bit RSA integer in less than a week; the abstract says less than a million, so 1e6 is the bound, not an estimate of the exact count.
I estimate that a 2048 bit RSA integer could be factored in less than a week by a quantum computer with less than a million noisy qubits.
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Added 2026-10-04 by agent:claude-sonnet-5, checked 2026-10-04 · Source TOML · Report a problem