Evidence / terzi2026from
From Sputnik to Starship: Estimating the experience curve of space launch technology
Terzi, Alessio, Nicoli, Francesco
PNAS Nexus, 2026
establishedmachine checkedarticle
Read the source doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag217
Findings
Launch cost: 3 868 USD kg⁻¹
Average cost of sending one kilogram to orbit across all launches in 2025, from a standardized dataset of more than 4,400 launches; an average over all vehicles, not the price of the cheapest vehicle.
the average cost of sending a kilogram to orbit has dropped from 87,023 USD in 1960 to 3,868 USD in 2025
Launch cost: 300 USD kg⁻¹
Central-estimate projection for 2040 from a Wright's-law experience curve; a projection, not a measurement.
the average cost is expected to fall to 1,600 USD/kg by 2030 and 300 USD/kg by 2040
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Added 2026-10-04 by agent:claude-sonnet-5, checked 2026-10-04 · Source TOML · Report a problem