Placing payload in low Earth orbit at a cost per kilogram low enough that mass is no longer the main limit on what is built in space.
Scope
In: the cost per kilogram of launch to low Earth orbit, by reusable or otherwise cheaper launch systems. Out: what is built or kept alive in orbit (space/closed-loop-life-support) and in-space transport beyond low Earth orbit.
Price or cost to place one kilogram of payload in low Earth orbit. Lower is better.
Current (2025-12-31)3 868 USD kg⁻¹
Target300 USD kg⁻¹
Limit–
Conditions. Average cost of sending one kilogram to orbit, all launches in the year.
Why this target. The central-estimate projection of the same experience-curve study for 2040; it is a forecast from a Wright's-law fit, not a goal set by an agency, and is used here as the next milestone.
Note. An average over a dataset of all launches, so below the list price of low-cost vehicles for some missions and above it for others.
Reusable first stages reduced launch cost, and providers on several continents plan reusable systems. The cost per kilogram falls with cumulative payload launched, following a learning curve, so further reductions depend on reuse at higher rate and with more of the vehicle recovered.
Market structure and orbital debris may slow the decline
mediumregulationlayer: deploymentopen
The study that fits the learning curve warns that geopolitical shifts, possible monopolistic behavior in commercial launch markets and the growing problem of orbital debris may temper the cost reductions.